OPEC+ Raises July Production Quotas by 188,000 BPD for Fourth Straight Month as Ceasefire Talks Push WTI Below $90

Seven members of OPEC+ approved a collective July production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day on June 7, marking the group's fourth consecutive monthly output hike since the Strait of Hormuz closed in early March. Saudi Arabia and Russia each received the largest individual allotment, adding 62,000 barrels per day to their respective targets. Saudi Arabia's total quota now stands at 10.291 million barrels per day, while Russia's sits at 9.762 million barrels per day.

The participating members were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. The United Arab Emirates, which departed OPEC+ after the Hormuz crisis began, was absent from the meeting. Monthly increases had been set at 206,000 barrels per day in April and May; the June 7 decision came in at 188,000 barrels per day, in part because the UAE's former quota share is no longer included in the collective target.

Production Has Fallen 22 Percent Since the Strait Closed

The quota hike exists largely on paper. OPEC+ group output averaged 42.77 million barrels per day in February 2026, the final full month before Iranian forces declared the Strait closed on March 4. By April, production had collapsed to 33.19 million barrels per day, a decline of 9.58 million barrels per day, equal to roughly 22 percent of February's output. The shortfall dwarfs the paper increases: cumulative quota additions from April through July total approximately 788,000 barrels per day, just one-twelfth of the actual production that has gone offline.

"An OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed," said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global energy supply transited before the conflict, has blocked Gulf exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait from reaching customers since late February. Saudi Aramco, the state oil company that produces Saudi Arabia's entire crude allocation, has been unable to supply customers in full since February, per CNBC. Total production across OPEC members has declined approximately 9.7 million barrels per day, or about 30 percent of the group's pre-closure output.

UAE Departure Recalibrates the Monthly Quota Arithmetic

The UAE's exit from OPEC+ permanently reset the coalition's monthly quota math. When the UAE participated, the standard monthly increase ran at 206,000 barrels per day. The June 7 decision landed at 188,000 barrels per day. The 18,000-barrel-per-day difference represents the UAE's former proportional share of the collective monthly adjustment, now absent from the ledger.

The departure also removes one of the Gulf's highest-volume producers from the coalition's compliance mechanism. Before the Hormuz crisis, the UAE was among the coalition's chronic overproducers alongside Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Between January 2024 and July 2025, six OPEC+ members cumulatively overproduced by 4.779 million barrels per day against their assigned quotas, per OilPrice.com's review of OPEC compliance data.

Ceasefire Progress Drives WTI Down 3.5 Percent on Monday

A separate catalyst drove prices lower Monday. WTI crude was trading at $88.08 per barrel as of late morning on June 9, down $3.22 (3.53 percent) on the session, per OilPrice.com (10-minute delayed data). Brent crude fell to $91.50 per barrel, a loss of $2.75 (2.92 percent). WTI had traded as high as $97.15 per barrel earlier in June before ceasefire optimism began unwinding the geopolitical premium.

The US and Iran have reportedly reached agreement on most terms of a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the current ceasefire, though the deal still requires Trump's approval. UBS cautioned that there is "little evidence of any short-term improvement in vessel traffic or energy flows" through the Strait despite the diplomatic progress. A fully reopened Hormuz Strait would allow Gulf exporters to resume shipping roughly 9.58 million barrels per day of crude that has been unable to reach markets since March. WTI began 2026 near $57 per barrel; at $88.08, prices remain 54 percent above that starting level even after the recent decline.

Rystad and UBS Diverge on the Recovery Path

OPEC+ has not altered its group-wide output policy for the remainder of 2026. Rystad Energy and UBS offer contrasting assessments of near-term price direction. Rystad treats the monthly quota increases as effectively irrelevant until physical barrels can move through the Strait again. UBS points to the absence of visible vessel traffic improvements as evidence of a slow, partial reflow rather than a rapid supply surge. If Trump approves the MOU and the Strait eventually reopens, the market would face the potential return of more than 9 million barrels per day of Gulf crude, a volume without modern precedent.