India Oil Minister Hardeep Puri Visits Doha as Qatar LNG Supply Crisis Deepens, Ras Laffan Restart Could Take Five Years

Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri is in Doha for emergency energy talks with Qatari officials on April 9 and 10, as the supply disruption at Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG facility, deepens into what analysts now describe as a multi-year recovery scenario for global gas markets.

India relies on Qatar for approximately 45 percent of its LNG imports and 20 percent of its LPG supply, making QatarEnergy India's single largest energy supplier of both fuels. The ministerial visit follows QatarEnergy's declaration of force majeure on LNG deliveries after all production at Ras Laffan halted on March 2, 2026, the third day of the conflict that also prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz to most international shipping.

Supply Disruption Compounds Hormuz Closure

The dual shock of Qatar's LNG production halt and the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created one of the tightest global LNG supply environments in decades. Iran has selectively permitted transit only for vessels from India, China, Malaysia, and Pakistan, allowing some Indian LPG tankers to clear the strait despite the broader closure, but the volume flowing through the chokepoint remains far below normal levels.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced earlier this week remains, in the assessment of multiple analysts, tentative and fragile, leaving Strait traffic still largely choked. Qatar has signaled it is considering tentatively resuming work on its North Field expansion projects, but full restoration of Ras Laffan's production capacity is expected to take months at minimum, with some assessments indicating that damage to key infrastructure at the complex could require up to five years to fully repair.

For India, the stakes extend beyond energy markets. Qatar's LPG supply represents a critical input for domestic cooking fuel programs serving hundreds of millions of households. The disruption has already driven domestic LPG shortages in several Indian states, adding political urgency to Puri's diplomatic mission.

Global LNG Markets Under Acute Pressure

The Ras Laffan outage has removed a substantial share of global baseload LNG supply precisely when demand from Europe and Asia was already elevated. With Brent crude trading well above $95 USD per barrel and Goldman Sachs projecting that Brent could sustain above $100 USD throughout 2026 if the Hormuz closure persists another month, the price environment for replacement LNG is increasingly punishing for import-dependent economies.

Asian spot LNG prices have spiked sharply as buyers scramble for alternative supply from Australia, the United States, and Canada. The Trans Mountain Pipeline's record utilization in April 2026 reflects the surge in Pacific basin demand as Asian buyers diversify away from Gulf supply. Canadian heavy crude loaded at Westridge Marine Terminal is reaching Asia in greater volumes, and Canadian LNG projects are receiving renewed attention from buyers seeking supply security.

WCS differentials have narrowed as Canadian producers capitalize on the demand surge. The CAD impact has been broadly positive for Alberta-based energy companies, with USD-denominated export revenues providing a buffer against domestic currency movements during a period of elevated global volatility.

QatarEnergy's Long Road to Recovery

QatarEnergy's position is complicated not only by physical damage at Ras Laffan but by the cascade of force majeure declarations from buyers who are now pursuing alternative supply arrangements. Long-term LNG contracts typically include price structures tied to oil indices, and with Brent above $95 USD, buyers seeking spot replacement cargoes are facing significant cost penalties.

The facility at Ras Laffan is not just the world's largest LNG complex but also the hub for Qatar's petrochemical and fertilizer industries, meaning the economic damage from the shutdown extends well beyond gas exports. Qatar's stated interest in tentatively resuming expansion work on the North Field suggests the government is prioritizing production restoration, but the engineering and logistical challenges at a damaged facility of this scale are considerable.

For context, BP and other major international oil companies with long-term Qatari supply agreements have activated contingency sourcing arrangements, drawing on their global portfolios to partially compensate for lost Qatari volumes. The broader market is watching whether the tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds long enough to allow Hormuz transit to normalize, which would at least restore the logistical pathway for future Qatari cargoes once production resumes.

India's Diversification Imperative

The crisis has sharpened India's strategic imperative to diversify its LNG supply base away from the Gulf. Puri's Doha visit is focused on near-term supply security, but Indian state energy companies, including GAIL and Petronet, have been accelerating discussions with U.S., Australian, and Canadian LNG producers about long-term supply agreements that reduce Qatar dependency below its current 45 percent share.

Canada has emerged as a preferred alternative for several Asian buyers, given its Pacific coast export position and the political stability of its supply environment. LNG Canada's production timeline and the broader Canadian LNG development pipeline are receiving renewed scrutiny from Asian energy planners recalibrating their supply portfolios in the wake of the Ras Laffan disruption.