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Brent Falls to $77.74 as Iran 60-Day Roadmap Prompts Goldman Sachs to Cut 2026 Forecast to $85 Average
Brent crude fell 3.5% to $77.74 on a new US-Iran 60-day peace roadmap. Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 Brent average to $85; Morgan Stanley targets $80 by Q4.
US Treasury Issues Iran Oil License With August Deadline; WTI Falls to $74.32 as Hormuz Exports Surge
Treasury Secretary Bessent issued Iran a 60-day oil export license Monday; three supertankers cleared Hormuz with 6 million barrels as WTI settled at $74.32.
WCS Discount Widens as Hormuz Peace Selloff Hits WTI and Trans Mountain Enters June Apportionment
The WCS-WTI differential has widened to $15.54 per barrel as WTI drops on Hormuz peace talks, while Trans Mountain hit June apportionment for the first time.
OPEC+ Approves 188,000 BPD July Production Hike as Hormuz Peace Talks Send WTI to $73.53
Seven OPEC+ nations approved a 188,000 bpd July quota hike on June 7, as WTI plunged 4.92% Monday to $73.53 per barrel amid Iran-US Hormuz peace talks.
Brent Crude Slides Below Goldman's $80 Q4 Target on Iran-US Peace Progress; 6 Million Barrels Clear Hormuz in Monday Wartime Record
Brent crude sank to $78.62 per barrel Monday as Iran claimed major US peace-talk progress and 6 million barrels of Iranian crude cleared Hormuz.
WTI Crude Settles at $77.54 After Geneva Talks Canceled; Baker Hughes US Oil Rigs Hold at 433
WTI crude settled at $77.54 per barrel Friday as failed US-Iran talks in Geneva re-ignite Hormuz supply risk. Baker Hughes logs 433 active US oil rigs.
Brent Crude Off 23% in June on Ceasefire Optimism as 500 Stranded Vessels and Mine Clearance Complicate Hormuz Reopening
Brent crude sank 23% in June on ceasefire hopes, but mine clearance timelines of six months and 500 stranded vessels complicate a Hormuz supply recovery.
Iran Shuts Strait of Hormuz a Second Time in 2026, Citing Lebanon Ceasefire Violations
Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz for the second time in 2026 Saturday, citing Lebanon. Brent settled at $80.59/bbl Friday after plunging 8% on ceasefire hopes.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Both Set Q4 2026 Brent at $80 While Citi Targets $70, Banks Diverge on Hormuz Recovery Pace
Goldman Sachs cut Q4 Brent to $80 per barrel, matching Morgan Stanley, while Citi targets $70. Brent settled at $80.59 Friday, already at Goldman's target.
Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls to Zero Saturday After 25-Ship Thursday Surge, Goldman Moves Recovery Forecast to Late July
Hormuz tanker traffic fell to zero Saturday despite a 25-ship transit surge on Thursday. Goldman projects 70 percent of prewar flow by late July.
Western Canadian Select Discount Narrows to $11.80 as Hormuz Peace Talks and Refinery Demand Lift Alberta Netbacks
WCS crude's discount to WTI narrowed to $11.80 per barrel June 9, driven by Hormuz peace talks and strong U.S. refinery demand for Canadian heavy oil.
OPEC+ Locks Production Quotas Through Year-End at Vienna Ministerial, First Session Without UAE as Member
OPEC+ reaffirmed oil output quotas through December 2026 in Vienna on June 7, the first full ministerial in alliance history without the UAE.
Kuwait Petroleum Corp Targets 2 Million Bpd Recovery as Hormuz Transit Falls to Zero
Kuwait Petroleum Corp targets 2 million bpd from a May low of 573,000, but Friday saw zero outbound tankers at Hormuz as US-Iran talks stalled.
WCS Crude Holds $16.30 Below WTI as Record Suncor and CNRL Production Outpaces Trans Mountain Apportionment
WCS crude held $16.30 below WTI on Friday as record Suncor and CNRL oil sands output kept the discount $4 wider than AER's 2026 base case forecast.
OPEC World Oil Outlook Projects 113.3 Million bpd Demand by 2030 and Calls for 708 Billion Dollars Per Year in Investment
OPEC's 20th World Oil Outlook, released June 18 in Vienna, projects demand at 113.3M bpd by 2030 and calls for 708B dollars yearly in oil investment.
Hormuz Tanker Traffic Drops to Zero as Iran Talks Collapse, Stranding 80 Million Barrels
Zero tankers transited Hormuz outbound on June 19 after Iran-US peace talks collapsed, stranding 80 million barrels and widening WCS discounts.
Brent Crude Falls to $79 as Iran and US Sign Islamabad MOU, Hormuz Oil Sanctions Lifted
Brent crude fell to $79.04 on June 19 as Iran and the US signed the Islamabad MOU, immediately lifting oil sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent Crude Falls to $79.11 as Iran Peace Deal Targets Hormuz Reopening and IEA Projects 5-Million-BPD Surplus
Brent crude fell to $79.11 per barrel Thursday on the US-Iran deal. Goldman Sachs holds its $90 Q4 forecast. The IEA warns of a 5-million-bpd surplus by 2027.
Brent Crude Settles at $79.58 as Iran Hormuz Deal Erases a $33 Per Barrel Supply Premium
Brent crude closed at $79.58 per barrel Thursday, down 29% from last month, as a US-Iran Hormuz deal erased an oil war premium despite tight US inventories.
Goldman Sachs Sets 70 Percent Ceiling on Hormuz Oil Flows as Saudi Arabia Routes 7.5 Million Barrels Daily to Red Sea
Goldman Sachs projects Hormuz crude flows reach only 70% of pre-war levels as 62 million barrels queue for Asia transit and Brent holds near $78 on ICE.
IEA June 2026 Report Warns of 5 mb/d Oil Surplus in 2027 as Iran Resumes Strait of Hormuz Crude Exports
IEA warns of 5.05 mb/d global oil surplus in 2027 as Iran's first crude tankers exit the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude settled at $78.69 Tuesday.
U.S. Crude Stocks Fall 8.3 Million Barrels as Refineries Run at 96.7% Utilization, EIA Reports
U.S. crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels last week to 418.2 million, 6% below the five-year average, as refineries ran at 96.7% capacity, EIA reported.
Brent Crude at $79.55 Steadies on Iran Deal Doubts as IEA Warns of Supply Surplus and EIA Inventory Releases Wednesday
Brent crude held near $79.55 Wednesday morning on Iran deal doubts; IEA warned of supply surplus while EIA releases petroleum inventory data today.
Hormuz Mine Clearance and Tanker Insurance Set Six-Month Floor on Gulf Oil Supply Recovery
Rystad, Wood Mackenzie, EIA, Capital Economics and Kpler all project different Hormuz supply timelines, even as WTI falls 6% to $75.78 on Monday.
OPEC+ July Hike of 188,000 bpd Finally Counts as Hormuz Deal Unlocks Stranded Gulf Supply
OPEC+ approved its fourth straight 188,000-bpd hike for July, but four months of symbolic quota boosts only matter now that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen.
Brent Falls to $80 After US-Iran Hormuz Deal; Goldman Slashes 2026 Forecast in Second Cut This Week
Brent crude fell $8 in two sessions to $80 per barrel after Trump's US-Iran Hormuz deal; Goldman cut its Q4 2026 forecast to $80 from $90 the same day.
WTI Falls 4 Percent as US and Iran Agree to Reopen Strait of Hormuz After 100-Day Closure
WTI crude fell 4.09% to $81.41 per barrel on Monday after Washington and Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, shut for more than 100 days.
Tengizchevroil Expansion Drives Kazakhstan 351,000 bpd Over Its OPEC+ Quota, Exposing Why IOC Joint Ventures Resist Cartel Discipline
Kazakhstan pumped 1.93 million bpd against its 1.579 million bpd OPEC+ quota in April. Tengizchevroil, half-owned by Chevron, explains why Astana cannot cut.
OPEC+ Quota Strategy Meets Hormuz Peace Deal: Brent Drops 5% as Saudi Fiscal Gap Widens to $12 Per Barrel
WTI fell 5% to $80.53 as the US-Iran Hormuz deal collapsed oil's war premium, leaving Saudi Arabia $12 per barrel short of its IMF fiscal breakeven.
Brent Falls to $85.14 as Iran-US 60-Day MOU Commits to Hormuz Reopening, Implying WCS at $69.95 for Suncor and Cenovus
Iran and the US announced a 60-day MOU to reopen Hormuz, pushing Brent to $85.14 on Sunday. Alberta oil sands producers face implied WCS at $69.95 per barrel.
Energy Secretary Wright Discloses US Military Moving 7 Million Barrels Per Day Through Persian Gulf, Double What Markets Had Priced In
US Energy Secretary Wright disclosed the military is moving 7 million bpd through the Persian Gulf, nearly double what markets had priced in for Hormuz flows.
OPEC Trims 2026 Demand Growth to 970,000 Barrels Per Day in Second Straight Monthly Cut, Raises 2027 Forecast
OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth to 970,000 b/d for the second month running while raising 2027 demand growth to 1.73 mb/d on China and India recovery.
WTI Crude Falls to $84.88 as Iran-US Hormuz Deal Probability Reaches 80 Percent, Already Below EIA Forecast
WTI crude closed at $84.88 per barrel on June 12, already below the EIA's June forecast of $105 Brent, as US officials cited 80% odds of a Hormuz deal.
Qatari Mediators Fly to Tehran as Iran Disputes US Deal Timeline: Brent at $87.33, Rystad Warns of 5 Million Bpd Surplus on Hormuz Reopening
Qatari mediators flew to Tehran Sunday as Iran's FM disputed Trump's signing timeline, Brent settled at $87.33 and OPEC faces a 5 million bpd surplus risk.
WTI Crude Settles at $84.88 per Barrel on Iran Deal Momentum as Baker Hughes Counts 433 Active Oil Rigs
WTI crude settled at $84.88 per barrel on Friday's CME close, down 3.2%, as Iran peace deal momentum drove oil's steepest daily drop in weeks.
Goldman Sachs, EIA, and Morgan Stanley Land at $79-$80 Brent for 2027, Pricing In Hormuz Normalization Before Year-End
Goldman Sachs, the EIA, and Morgan Stanley all put 2027 Brent near $79-$80, with a shared assumption that Hormuz flows normalize substantially before Q1 2027.
OPEC-12 Output Hits 26-Year Low in May as Hormuz Disruption Erases 1.06 Million Barrels Per Day
OPEC-12 May output fell to 16.13 million bpd, a 26-year low, as the U.S. blockade cut Iran's exports and Hormuz disruptions shut down Gulf shipments.
Iran's 30-Day Hormuz Pledge Sends Brent Below $87, but Trump Disputes Draft Deal Terms
Brent fell 4% to $86.71 Friday as Iran's 14-point draft deal pledges Hormuz reopening in 30 days. Trump disputes the terms, markets split on odds.
WCS Discount Widens to $11.90 Per Barrel as WTI Settles at $84.88, Pressuring Alberta Oil Sands Producers
WCS settled at $11.90 below WTI on June 10. With WTI at $84.88, implied WCS is $72.98 per barrel, pressuring Alberta in situ and mining producers.
Goldman Sachs Cuts 2027 Brent Forecast to $80 as China EV Shift and Non-OPEC Supply Growth Offset Hormuz Premium
Goldman Sachs cut its 2027 Brent forecast to $80/bbl on June 11, aligning with EIA's $79 projection, as OPEC projects 970,000 bpd demand growth for 2026.
US Petroleum Net Exports Hit Record 5.8 Million Barrels Per Day in April as Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Global Trade
US petroleum net exports hit a record 5.8 million b/d in April 2026, as Hormuz-displaced buyers sought American crude. A peace deal could end that windfall.
Brent Crude at $88 Per Barrel Matches EIA Q4 2026 Forecast Three Months Early as Trump Iran Deal Optimism Builds
Brent fell to $88.03 per barrel on June 12, below EIA's Q4 2026 forecast three months early, as Trump signaled a US-Iran settlement framework.
Brent Crude Falls 4.15% to $89.24 as Trump Suspends Iran Military Plans and Signals a Deal by Weekend
Brent crude fell 4.15% to $89.24 Thursday as Trump suspended Iran attack plans, signaling a US-Iran deal by weekend. EIA had forecast $105 for June-July.
WTI Crude Settles at $86.45 After Trump Reverses Kharg Island Threat and Cites Iran Talks
WTI crude settled at $86.45 per barrel Thursday, falling 3.98% as Trump threatened to seize Kharg Island, then cancelled Iran strikes, citing talks.
OPEC June Monthly Report Cuts 2026 Demand Growth to 970,000 Bpd as Gulf Producers Run 8.5 Million Bpd Below Quota
OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 970,000 bpd Wednesday, while Gulf producers run 8.5 million bpd below quota due to Hormuz closure.
EIA Wednesday Report Shows Eighth Straight US Crude Draw to 426.5 Million Barrels, 5 Percent Below Five-Year Average
US crude stocks fell 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million, the eighth straight weekly draw and now 5% below the five-year average, EIA reported.
Iran's IRGC Closes Strait of Hormuz to All Oil Tankers, India Protests Three Mariner Deaths, Brent at $93
Iran's IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz to all oil tankers overnight. India summoned a US diplomat after three mariners died in a CENTCOM strike. Brent $93.
WTI Crude Settles at $90.48 After EIA Reports Seventh Consecutive Weekly Inventory Draw
WTI crude settled at $90.48 per barrel Wednesday, rebounding 2.59% after EIA reported a 7.2-million-barrel draw, the seventh straight weekly decline.
WCS Discount Narrows to $12.10 Against WTI as Hormuz Closure Creates Demand Premium for Alberta Barrels
The WCS-WTI discount narrowed to $12.10 per barrel as Hormuz keeps Gulf heavy grades offline and Alberta crude inventories hit their lowest level since 2017.
Seven OPEC+ Nations Approve 188,000 bpd July Hike as Hormuz Supply Disruption Tops 1 Billion Barrels
OPEC+ approved a second straight 188,000 bpd output hike for July, but the Hormuz shutdown has removed 1 billion barrels of Gulf supply since March.