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Trump Reinstates Hormuz Blockade and 20 Percent Cargo Fee, Brent Settles at $83.30 Surpassing Goldman's Q4 Target
Brent crude settled at $83.30 on Monday's ICE close, beating Goldman's $80 Q4 target as Trump reinstated Hormuz blockade with a 20% cargo toll.
OPEC+ Approves 188,000 Bpd August Hike as UAE Posts Record Crude Exports Outside the Cartel
OPEC+ approved 188,000 bpd more for August as the UAE, now outside the cartel, hit record 3.7-4 million bpd of exports in June per Kpler data.
WCS-WTI Spread Widens to $16.67 as Iran Escalation Drives WTI Up 6% While Canadian Heavy Oil Lags
WCS last settled at $59.06 per barrel Saturday as WTI surged to $75.73 Sunday morning on Iran news, widening the implied spread to $16.67 per barrel.
EIA Cuts Q3 Inventory Draw Forecast by 4.8 Million Bpd After Hormuz MOU, Revising 2026 Brent Down to $82
The EIA July 2026 STEO cuts the 2026 Brent forecast to $82 after the Hormuz MOU, trimming the Q3 inventory draw by 4.8 million bpd from prior projections.
US Petroleum Exports Reach Record 13.6 Million Bpd in April on Hormuz-Driven Demand and Gulf Coast Surge
US petroleum exports hit a monthly record of 13.6 million bpd in April 2026, a 15% surge as Hormuz disruptions channeled demand to Gulf Coast terminals.
Iraq's 4 Million Bpd Basra Export Chain Has No Hormuz Bypass, Stranding BP, ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies Cargoes
Iraq's 4 million bpd has no Hormuz bypass. Iran's July 12 closure strands $285 million in daily Basra export revenue and zeros Iraq's OPEC+ August gain.
Goldman's $130 Brent Scenario Shifts From Upside Risk to Active Forecast After Iran Closes Hormuz
Goldman cut Q4 Brent to $80 assuming Hormuz normalized by July's end. Iran's full closure July 12 puts the bank's own $130 upside scenario in play.
WCS Trades at US$12 Discount to WTI as Trans Mountain Expansion Reduces Alberta Heavy Oil Penalty by US$7 From 2023
WCS held near a US$12 per barrel discount to WTI on Friday, roughly a third below the US$18.65 average gap prevailing before Trans Mountain expansion.
OPEC+ Approves Fifth Straight 188,000 bpd Hike for August as Hormuz Traffic Falls to Five Daily Transits
OPEC+ approved its fifth straight output hike of 188,000 bpd for August as Hormuz shipping collapsed to five daily transits, versus 130 before the war.
WTI Settles at $71.41 as 18 Percent Monthly Slide Meets a $6.70 EIA Brent Forecast Gap
WTI crude settled at $71.41 per barrel on Friday's CME close as EIA's July STEO puts 2026 Brent at $82, a $6.70 gap that implies a steep H2 recovery.
WTI Settles Near $71.60 and Brent Above $76 as a Five-Week, $25 Price Slide Resets North American Energy Economics
WTI crude settled near $71.60 per barrel Friday as Brent held above $76, capping a five-week, $25 drop from June's $97 peak amid Hormuz tensions.
Goldman Sachs Cuts Q4 Brent Forecast to $80 on July Hormuz Normalization; WCS at $57.99 Tests Alberta Oil Sands Margins
Goldman cuts Q4 Brent to $80 as Hormuz reopens. WCS holds at $57.99 with a $14.40 WTI discount, compressing Alberta oil sands margins into Q4.
EIA Reports 3 Million-Barrel Crude Build as WTI Falls to $71.57 and Brent to $75.75, OPEC August Hike Offsets Hormuz Crisis
WTI dropped to $71.57 and Brent to $75.75 on Wednesday as a surprise 3 million-barrel EIA crude build and OPEC+ August hike dominated Hormuz headlines.
US Distillates Drop 5 Million Barrels to 12% Below Five-Year Average as TTF Gas Surges Above 46 Euros on European Heatwave
US distillate stocks fell 5 million barrels to 12% below the five-year average as TTF hit 46 euros per MWh on heatwave fears and 49% storage fill.
Brent Hits $79.25 Before Retreating as Trump Voids Iran Ceasefire After Three Hormuz Tanker Attacks
Brent hit $79.25 before retreating to $75.75 as Trump voided Iran ceasefire after three Hormuz tanker attacks. Goldman warns $100-plus if closure extends.
Rystad Energy Says Hormuz Tanker Traffic Has Essentially Stopped as US-Iran Airstrikes Hit 170 Combined Targets
Rystad Energy says Hormuz tanker traffic has essentially stopped. WTI fell to $71.57 as Qatar halted LNG output at the world's largest facility.
FGE NexantECA Disputes $60 Brent Bear Case as Hormuz Recovery Stalls and Iran Signals Transit Fees
FGE NexantECA says oil glut fears are overblown, citing Iran conflict risk, Hormuz transit fees, and a Brent forecast above Citi's $60 target.
OPEC+ Seven Nations Vote for 188,000-Barrel August Hike as Brent Falls 24 Percent in a Month
Seven OPEC+ nations added 188,000 barrels per day for August as Brent fell 24% in a month to $71.83; Goldman targets $60 and Morgan Stanley $75.
Trans Mountain Expansion Shrinks WCS Discount to $12.40 Below WTI, Down $6.25 From 2023 Levels
WCS crude last assessed at $12.40 below WTI in June 2026, down from an $18.65 differential in 2023, as Trans Mountain's first year adds C$13.6B.
Saudi Aramco Abandons Term Contracts for Spot Sales as 10 Million Barrels Clear Reopened Hormuz, Four VLCCs Loading at Ras Tanura
Saudi Aramco abandons term contracts for spot sales as 10 million barrels clear Hormuz and four VLCCs load at Ras Tanura, worth roughly $1.3 billion.
Citi and Goldman Target $60 Brent by Year-End, Morgan Stanley Holds $75 as Hormuz Flows Recover
Citi and Goldman target $60 Brent by year-end, Morgan Stanley holds $75. The $15 spread translates to $274M annual revenue per 50,000-bpd producer.
Iran Ships Over 40 Million Barrels Under 60-Day Sanctions Window as Citi and Morgan Stanley Split Brent $15 Apart
Iran has loaded over 40 million barrels since June 17. Brent settled $72.12 as August 21 expiry leaves Citi targeting $60 and Morgan Stanley at $75.
Iraq's 2.24 Million Bpd Output Gap Dwarfs OPEC+ August Hike as WTI Settles at $68.78
Iraq pumped just 1.76 million bpd in May, leaving a 2.24 million bpd shortfall that OPEC+'s 188,000 bpd August hike covers less than 9 percent of.
India June Crude Stocks Hit 104 Million Barrels as Record Imports of 5 Million Bpd Lift Russian Supply Share to 52%
India's crude inventories climbed to 104 million barrels as record June imports of 5 million bpd pushed Russia's share of Indian crude buying to 52%.
Baker Hughes US Rig Count Climbs to 580 in Week Ending July 2, Up 41 From Last Year
Baker Hughes reports 580 active US rigs for week ending July 2, up 41 from last year, as OPEC+ supply growth and Goldman surplus warning loom over 2027.
OPEC+ Approves 188,000 Bpd August Hike as Citi Targets $60 Brent and Goldman Warns of 3 Million Barrel Supply Surplus
OPEC+ set a 188,000 bpd August output hike as Citi forecast Brent at $60 by year-end, a call Goldman Sachs underscored with a 3 million bpd surplus warning.
Oil Heads for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Hormuz Flows Resume, Splitting Citigroup and Morgan Stanley by $15 on Brent
Brent traded at $71.86 per barrel Thursday on ICE as Hormuz normalization accelerates, splitting Citigroup at $60 and Morgan Stanley at $75 by year-end.
WCS Trades $12 Under WTI at $56.23 as Trans Mountain Runs Near 890,000 Bpd Ceiling
Western Canadian Select sits $12 under WTI at $56.23 as Trans Mountain runs near its 890,000 bpd ceiling, tightening the discount for CNRL and Suncor.
Goldman Sachs Flags 2027 Oil Supply Surplus as OPEC+ Output Set for 5.8 Million Bpd Climb and Brent Slides to $71
Goldman Sachs warns a 2027 oil supply surplus is inevitable as EIA models OPEC+ output surging 5.8 million bpd while Brent crude slips to $71.
US Crude Output Eases to 13.81 Million Bpd While Twelve-Week Draw Streak Fails to Lift Brent Past $71
US crude output eased to 13.81 million bpd in late June, as 12 consecutive inventory draws pushed stocks to a 16-month low. Brent slips below $71.
WTI Falls to $68.08 as Stranded Hormuz Tankers Carry Existing Inventory Rather Than New Iranian Crude
WTI crude fell to $68.08 and Brent to $71.18 on July 1 as analysts found tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz carry stranded oil, not new Iranian production.
Brent Crude Settles at $73.44 on Last Day of H1 2026 With Morgan Stanley Cutting to $75 and EIA Forecast $21 Higher
Brent crude settled at $73.44 Tuesday, opening a $21 gap with EIA's June $95 forecast as Strait of Hormuz reopens and Morgan Stanley cuts to $75.
Brent Crude Benchmark Loses Its North Sea Foundation as August Cargo Schedule Records First Zero Loadings
For the first time on record, no Brent crude cargoes are scheduled to load in August, as the original North Sea field falls to just 23,000 bpd.
Kazakhstan Oil Output Hits 2.17 Million Bpd, Outrunning July OPEC+ Quota by 560,000 Bpd as Tengizchevroil Expansion Complicates Compensation
Kazakhstan pumped 2.17 million bpd in April, 560,000 bpd above its July OPEC+ quota. Tengiz expansion and Kashagan gains make compliance nearly impossible.
TTF Rises to 43.72 Euros Per MWh as European Gas Storage Falls 8.6 Points Below Last Year, Winter Supply Risk Mounts
TTF climbed to 43.72 euros per MWh Tuesday as European gas storage trails 2025 by 8.6 points, compressing the winter buffer heading into peak cooling demand.
WTI Crude Settles at $70.56 on Iran Ceasefire; Goldman Targets $82 Brent in Q3 as WCS Weighs on Alberta Revenue
WTI crude settled at $70.56 and Brent at $72.91 on June 29 as US-Iran ceasefire unlocks Hormuz shipping. Goldman targets $82 Brent in Q3; WCS at $58.
WTI Crude Rebounds to $70 as US-Iran Doha Peace Talks Pause Hormuz Strikes
WTI crude rose $1.30 to $70.53 per barrel on June 29 as US-Iran talks in Doha on Tuesday paused Hormuz hostilities, reversing a four-month low.
Brent Crude Tops $73 as Iran Tanker Attacks Shadow Hormuz Deal, Saudi Aramco Cuts July OSP by $6
Brent crude topped $73.38 per barrel and WTI gained 2.51% on June 29 as fresh Iran tanker attacks shadowed the Hormuz reopening deal signed June 27.
Brent Crude at $72.51 as Hormuz Cargo Strike Halts Tanker Surge; Pakistan Issues Emergency LNG Tender
Brent rose to $72.51 as a cargo vessel strike near Oman reversed a Hormuz recovery that had briefly put 70 tankers through the strait in one day.
WCS Drops 14 Percent in One Week as Gulf Heavy Crude Returns, Widening Discount to WTI
Western Canadian Select dropped 14.2% to $54.98 per barrel this week, falling faster than WTI as Gulf heavy crude re-enters Asian markets via the Hormuz deal.
Brent Crude Falls to $71.99 Amid Hormuz Reopening, 31 Percent Below EIA June Forecast
Brent crude closed at $71.99 Friday, 31% below the EIA's June 9 forecast of $105, as the US-Iran deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and restored Gulf supply.
WCS Settles $12.40 Below WTI as Trans Mountain Narrows Spread and ExxonMobil's Imperial Oil Faces $56 Netback
WCS settled $12.40 per barrel below WTI on June 3, narrowing from $15.85 in May. WTI at $68.86 on Friday leaves Alberta oil sands producers netting $56.46.
Four OPEC+ Quota Hikes Add 752,000 bpd on Paper While Hormuz Cuts Actual Output 9.6 Million
OPEC+ voted four times since Iran war began to raise quotas 188,000 bpd each. Actual output fell 9.6 million bpd. The July 5 meeting arrives at WTI $69.
Brent Crude Settles at $71.99 as Hormuz Traffic Rebounds, Completing Full Reversal of Iran War Premium
Brent shed 22% in 30 days and settled at $71.99 on Friday as Hormuz tanker traffic rebounds from its 90% wartime collapse, erasing the Iran war premium.
WTI Crude Settles at $69.23 as Hormuz Shipping Rebound Drives 22 Percent Monthly Price Collapse
WTI crude plunged to $69.23/barrel Friday, shedding 22% in a month as Hormuz transits surge on US-Iran deal momentum. Baker Hughes counted 440 US oil rigs.
Brent Crude Settles at $71.99 and WTI at $69.23 as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Reaches 75 Percent of Prewar Flow
Brent crude settled at $71.99/bbl and WTI at $69.23 on June 26, reaching pre-war lows as Hormuz tanker traffic hit 75 percent of prewar flow.
Alberta Oil Sands Hold $26 Operating Margin at WTI $69, Six Times Wider Than U.S. Shale as WCS Differential Stabilizes
Alberta's oil sands producers hold a $26/bbl operating margin at WTI $69, six times wider than U.S. shale. WCS settled $12.40 below WTI in early June.
OPEC+ July Quota Hike of 188,000 BPD Covers Just 2.4 Percent of the Group's 7.7 Million-Barrel Output Collapse
OPEC+'s 188,000 bpd July hike covers just 2.4% of the 7.7 million bpd output lost since February. Brent dropped to $72.95 as Hormuz shipping accelerates.
Iraq Warns OPEC It May Exit If Production Quotas Don't Rise, as Baghdad Targets 7 Million Barrels Per Day by 2029
Iraq threatened to exit OPEC if the cartel won't raise its quota, as Baghdad targets 7 million bbl/day by 2029, per EIA estimates. UAE already quit this year.
WTI Crude Oil Settles at $69.23 Friday as Hormuz Reopening Drives Brent Below Goldman and Morgan Stanley Q4 Targets
Brent crude fell to $73.52 Friday, already $6 below Goldman's $80 Q4 2026 target, as WTI settled at $69.23 on Hormuz reopening and Permian rigs rose to 258.