EIA Crude Draw Moderates to 1.7 Million Barrels as Distillate Stocks Build 4.6 Million, WTI at $78.94

US commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.7 million barrels during the week ending July 10, 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration. Total commercial stocks stand at 409.7 million barrels, 6 percent below the five-year seasonal average. Brent crude was trading at $84.34 per barrel in late-morning Thursday activity, per OilPrice.com, while WTI fell to $78.94 per barrel, down 0.83 percent on the session.

Distillate Stocks Build at the Fastest Pace This Quarter

Distillate fuel oil inventories gained 4.6 million barrels during the reporting week. Total distillate stocks reached 108.2 million barrels, a level 11 percent below the five-year seasonal average. That gap implies a shortfall of approximately 13 million barrels against historical seasonal norms for mid-July. Refinery production of distillates averaged 5.3 million barrels per day, outpacing end-use demand and accelerating the rate of inventory recovery.

Gasoline inventories declined 1.5 million barrels in the same week. Gasoline demand averaged 8.9 million barrels per day. Total petroleum products supplied, the EIA's primary demand proxy, averaged 20.3 million barrels per day over the preceding four-week period, 0.3 percent above the same interval in 2025. Distillate demand fell 2.1 percent year-over-year, consistent with softer freight and manufacturing activity.

US Crude Output Holds at 13.86 Million Barrels Per Day

Domestic crude oil production averaged 13.861 million barrels per day during the week ending July 10, per EIA table data. Lower 48 states contributed 13.430 million barrels per day, with Alaska adding 431,000 barrels per day. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook from July 7 forecast full-year 2026 US crude output at 13.8 million barrels per day. Actual weekly throughput has exceeded that forecast pace in recent weeks.

Brent crude sits $2.34 per barrel above the EIA's full-year 2026 Brent target of $82, per the July 7 Short-Term Energy Outlook. The WTI-Brent spread reached $5.40 per barrel on Thursday morning. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 barrel per day August production hike on July 13, adding nominal supply to a market where US output already runs near record levels.

WCS Discount Narrows to $11.69 Per Barrel

Western Canadian Select crude held at $67.25 per barrel on Thursday, per OilPrice.com data with an 11-hour reporting delay. The WCS discount to WTI narrowed to $11.69 per barrel, tightening from the $13.28 differential reported in our prior Wednesday WCS coverage. Alberta heavy crude producers now realize $11.69 per barrel less than WTI sellers on Thursday morning, compared to a $13.28 gap the prior day.

Prior Week Comparison: Draw Moderated from Recent Pace

The 1.7 million barrel crude draw for week ending July 10 marks a moderation from the prior reporting period. Our earlier Brent backwardation and crude draw analysis highlighted a larger crude draw alongside 96 percent refinery utilization. This week's data shows high refinery throughput is now channeling crude output into product stocks rather than drawing down commercial inventories at the same rate. The inventory pattern signals a seasonal shift: summer gasoline demand nearing its peak while autumn distillate demand has not yet emerged.