Brent Crude Slides to $97 on Profit-Taking as Iran Conflict Enters Day 13 and CPC Halts Kazakhstan Black Sea Loadings

Brent crude futures fell $2.99 per barrel to $97.27 in early Friday trading on ICE, a decline of 2.97 percent. WTI crude on CME slipped $2.30 to $89.42, a decline of 3.00 percent. WTI remained higher for the week by approximately 10 percent despite Friday's pullback, per TradingEconomics, as three simultaneous supply disruptions drove gains from Monday's opening levels.

Three Supply Shocks Behind the Week's Advance

The week's crude rally reflected three distinct and concurrent supply disruptions. The United States carried out air strikes on Iran for a 13th consecutive day as of Friday morning, with both governments ruling out near-term talks, per TradingEconomics. Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to their lowest level since May, as vessel operators rerouted or delayed sailings amid the escalating conflict. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium also suspended crude loadings at its Black Sea terminal at Novorossiysk, halting what OilPrice.com estimated at approximately 80 percent of Kazakhstan's daily crude export volume.

CPC Suspension: Kazakhstan's Black Sea Route Under Pressure

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium moves crude from Kazakhstan's Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak fields to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk on Russia's southern coast. International operators including Chevron and ExxonMobil hold equity positions in the CPC alongside Kazakhstan's state producer KazMunayGas. The reason for the suspension and its expected duration were not publicly confirmed in available reports as of Friday morning. A prior CPC disruption in 2022, caused by storm damage to its tanker loading arms, affected global crude flows for several weeks before operations were restored to normal.

Permian Economics at $89 WTI

At $89.42 per barrel on CME Friday morning, WTI remained above breakeven for most US Permian Basin operators. Tier-1 Delaware Basin well economics typically run $50 to $55 per barrel, per Devon Energy's publicly disclosed breakeven estimates. At the midpoint of $52.50, Friday's price delivers $36.92 of operating margin per barrel before royalties and severance. A horizontal well producing 1,000 barrels per day in its first month generates approximately $1.11 million in operating cash over 30 days at that margin.

Brent's Trajectory This Week: From $95 to Above $100 and Back

Oil Authority tracked Brent's advance through prior sessions. Brent climbed to $99.86 per barrel as US strikes entered their 12th consecutive night, with Saudi tankers also under Houthi attack. A 3-million-barrel draw on US crude inventories pushed Brent briefly above $100 per barrel. Friday's retreat to $97.27 came as both sides ruled out near-term negotiations. Over the prior 30 days, Brent rose 28.84 percent, and over the prior 12 months by 42.13 percent, per TradingEconomics.

Baker Hughes North America Rig Count Due at Noon CT

Baker Hughes releases the weekly North America rig count at noon Central Time today, Friday July 24. The most recent count, for the week ending July 17, showed the United States at 588 active rigs, up 7 from the prior week and 44 above the year-ago level, per Baker Hughes data. Canada stood at 198 rigs for the same period, up 19 week over week and 26 above a year earlier. The new count will be the first to reflect the current pricing environment, with WTI above $89 for most of the week.

Price Outlook

TradingEconomics model projections set WTI at $85.38 per barrel by quarter end and $97.47 per barrel over 12 months, per data published Friday. The same source projected Brent at $90.87 per barrel by quarter end and $102.39 per barrel over 12 months. Both forecasts imply a geopolitical risk premium above modeled equilibrium at current prices. These projections are model-based estimates, not consensus forecasts from named sell-side analysts or commodity research firms.