Baker Hughes Counts 581 US Rigs, Up 44 Year-Over-Year, as WTI at $80.77 Points to $28 Permian Margin

Baker Hughes releases its weekly North America rig count at 1 PM ET today, Friday, July 17. The July 10 report, the most recent available, showed 581 active rigs in the United States, a gain of one rig from the prior week and 44 rigs above the same period in 2025. Canada's count fell 11 rigs to 179 in the same week, a seasonal pattern common to mid-July as ground conditions soften across northern formations.

Forty-Four More Rigs Than a Year Ago

The 44-rig year-over-year gain in the US count is the most significant data point in the July 10 report. A gain of that scale indicates that operators added rigs and completions crews back to service as oil prices recovered above the $75 to $80 WTI threshold. Most Permian Basin and DJ Basin operators cite that range as the floor price to sanction new wells. The increase is not a single-week move; it reflects a steady restoration of activity across the first half of 2026.

Canada's 179-rig count sits 17 above the same week in 2025, consistent with the broader year-over-year trend visible in the US. The 11-rig weekly decline is within normal mid-July seasonal ranges as summer conditions affect northern Alberta and British Columbia pad operations. Today's Baker Hughes release will show whether Canadian operators held their position into the third week of July or continued trimming summer activity.

The Permian Breakeven Math at $80.77 WTI

WTI crude was trading at $80.77 per barrel as of approximately 09:01 AM ET Friday, up 2.31 percent from Thursday's close, per OilPrice.com data with an 11-minute delay. Devon Energy's published well-economics disclosures show Tier-1 Delaware Basin acreage in the Permian carries breakeven costs of $50 to $55 per barrel WTI. At today's price against the $52.50 midpoint of that range, Permian Tier-1 wells generate approximately $28 per barrel of operating margin before royalties and severance taxes.

A typical Permian horizontal producing 1,000 barrels per day in its first month at that margin rate clears roughly $840,000 of operating cash in 30 days. That economic picture explains why the US rig count has been building through 2026 despite operators claiming capital discipline. The cash returns on Tier-1 acreage at current prices justify incremental rig additions without requiring formal budget revisions.

EIA Projects 13.8 Million Barrels Per Day for Full-Year 2026

The EIA's July 7 Short-Term Energy Outlook projected US crude oil production at 13.8 million barrels per day for 2026, rising to 14.0 million barrels per day in 2027. Achieving 13.8 million barrels per day from a fleet of 581 active rigs would reflect a substantial improvement in per-rig productivity compared to any prior upcycle, when the US required significantly more rigs to achieve comparable output rates. Longer laterals, multi-well pad drilling, and improved completion designs have compressed the rig count needed to sustain a given production level.

The same July 7 EIA outlook set a Brent crude average forecast of $82 per barrel for 2026, revised down sharply from $95 in June. That revision assumed a June 18 US-Iran memorandum had stabilized Hormuz transit. Brent is currently trading at $86.12 per barrel, per OilPrice.com, running $4.12 above that forecast. As Oil Authority's July 15 Brent market structure report documented, the June memorandum subsequently collapsed and US crude inventories sat 6 percent below their five-year average as of that date.

At EIA's projected 13.8 million barrels per day of US production, each additional dollar per barrel of WTI adds roughly $5 billion in annualized US oil revenues. The $4 premium that Brent currently carries above the EIA's $82 base case implies a comparable uplift at the WTI level. That incremental revenue, if sustained at current prices, would materially outperform the EIA's July baseline assumptions for US upstream operators.

What to Watch When the Count Releases

Two variables in today's count will be most informative: the total US rig change from last week's 581 and the oil-versus-gas directional split. The oil rig component drives most of the year-over-year gain and is the primary barometer of Permian and other unconventional basin activity. A gain or flat reading would extend the 44-rig year-over-year margin; a decline would represent the first sequential drop in total US rigs since late June.

Canada's count will also receive attention after the 11-rig weekly decline to 179. A further substantial decline would raise questions about whether operators are accelerating seasonal summer reductions ahead of schedule. Stabilization or a mild recovery would confirm that Canadian pad drilling programs remain intact through the peak summer weeks.

As Oil Authority's reporting on crude inventories and the WCS-WTI differential has shown, the spread between Canadian heavy crude and WTI is a key determinant of Alberta drilling economics. That differential, combined with today's Baker Hughes count, will give producers and analysts an updated view on whether North American drilling momentum is sustaining through mid-July or beginning to plateau.