Hormuz Tanker Attacks Carry Brent to $85.77, Past EIA's $82 Full-Year Target, as India Halts Seafarer Deployments

Brent crude futures were trading at $85.77 per barrel in early Wednesday trading on ICE, up $0.82 (0.97 percent), per OilPrice.com market data with an 11-minute delay. That puts Brent $3.77 per barrel above the $82 full-year average the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected in its July 7 Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA had built that $82 forecast on the assumption that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 would keep the strait open to commercial navigation. WTI crude futures were trading at $80.41 per barrel, up $0.81 (1.02 percent) on the day; both benchmarks have gained roughly 11 to 13 percent for the week, per World Oil reporting.

Fifth Consecutive Day of Strikes, Two UAE VLCCs Targeted Overnight

U.S. forces carried out airstrikes on missile storage and launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, the fifth consecutive day of military operations, per World Oil. Tuesday night, Iran fired missiles at U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Jordan's government reported intercepting eight of those missiles. The U.S. military also struck a Curacao-flagged vessel near Iran's Kharg Island export terminal, marking its first attack on a commercial oil tanker in the current conflict. The military stated the ship had "ignored multiple warnings as it moved to an Iranian port," per Rigzone wire reporting.

Two UAE-linked very large crude carriers were struck on July 14. Nine commercial vessels have been damaged since the ceasefire collapsed, including five VLCCs, per Bloomberg reporting in World Oil. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared Wednesday: "The region's oil and gas exports are either available to all or available to none." Iran is demanding ships seek permission and pay transit service fees before entering the strait. Satellite analysis shows a sharp increase in dark shipping, with vessels disabling transponders to avoid targeting.

Hormuz Throughput Falls to 3.9 Million Barrels Per Day

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, estimated at 17 million barrels per day, per the EIA. The seven-day average of oil flows through the strait has fallen to 3.9 million barrels per day, down from 4.6 million barrels per day, per RBC Capital Markets. That is 77 percent below the strait's normal throughput. Saudi Aramco's Gulf crude loadings have "fallen sharply," with only one tanker berthed at Saudi Arabia's principal Gulf facilities on Wednesday. Iraq's export activity has "dropped sharply" as well, per Bloomberg.

At Brent's current $3.77 per barrel premium over the EIA's full-year forecast, global oil consumers are collectively paying $320 million more per day at 85 million barrels per day of global consumption. Sustained for a full year at these levels, that excess would represent $117 billion in additional global energy expenditure. The EIA's 2027 Brent forecast of $65 per barrel looks particularly exposed if the MOU framework continues to unravel.

Four Analysts Track Near-Record Traffic Decline

Rigzone spoke with four commodity analysts about Hormuz conditions on Wednesday. Ed Morse of Hartree Partners said roughly two-thirds of current transits are bound for or departing from Iran. Daily transit counts have ranged from 20 to 50 vessels, with two days exceeding 80; the pre-closure normal was 120 to 140 vessels per day. Christopher Haines, Global Head of Oil at Energy Aspects, said traffic has been "extremely volatile since May" and that nearly all previously stranded tankers have now exited the strait.

Lu Ming Pang, VP Gas and LNG Research at Rystad Energy, said only one UAE LNG vessel had completed the Hormuz transit since the July 7 attack on Qatar's Al Rekayyat Q-Flex carrier. Qatar has not dispatched another LNG vessel since, per Rystad data. Rory Johnston of Commodity Context summarized the situation: "We had a really promising trajectory, and it collapsed almost as quickly." Johnston added: "Everything's moving in the wrong direction right now." RBC Capital Markets wrote that "the ceasefire is over, with vessels under heavy Iranian fire."

India Halts Seafarer Deployments, 310,000 Workers Affected

India's Directorate General of Shipping issued a directive late Wednesday ordering ship owners, managers, and recruitment agencies to halt all deployments of Indian crew members on Hormuz-bound voyages "until further orders." India is the world's second-largest supplier of maritime workers, with more than 310,000 seafarers on merchant vessels globally. The order followed the death of an Indian seafarer in an earlier attack. The Philippines, the world's largest seafarer-supplying nation, implemented and later eased a similar ban earlier in the conflict.

Enforcement faces significant practical limits. Manoj Yadav, general secretary of the Forward Seamen's Union of India, noted that most affected vessels are foreign-owned and foreign-flagged, limiting India's legal jurisdiction. Thousands of Indian seafarers already in the conflict zone cannot simply be recalled, Yadav said.

The Forecast Assumption That Has Now Collapsed

The EIA's July 7 STEO explicitly noted that the U.S.-Iran MOU signed June 18 had reopened the strait, and that this shift caused the agency to reduce its Brent forecast 14 percent versus the prior month's projection. Iran's parliamentary speaker has stated the country has no legal obligation to honor the interim agreement, though stopped short of formally withdrawing. Trump has threatened to target "power plants and bridges" in Iran if attacks on commercial shipping continue. The release of American detainee Dena Karari, held since December 2024, was characterized by Trump as a possible opening for negotiations, though Iranian officials have not confirmed any interest in talks.

Oil Authority first reported on Iran-driven WTI pressure on July 13, when the WCS-WTI spread widened to $16.67 as Canadian heavy crude lagged a 6 percent WTI surge. Three days later, Brent has climbed another 11 to 13 percent from that already-elevated level. The Qatar maritime suspension of Ras Laffan LNG shipments reported that day remains in force; Rystad confirms no Qatari LNG vessels have transited the strait since the July 7 Al Rekayyat attack.