Brent Crude Hits $91.17 on ICE, Topping EIA Q3 Forecast by $17 Per Barrel as Iran Exits 31-Day Hormuz Ceasefire

Brent crude futures were trading at $91.17 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, per TradingEconomics data reflecting ICE Futures Europe pricing, up 2.19 percent on the day. WTI crude stood at $84.12 per barrel on the CME Group exchange, a gain of 1.99 percent. Both benchmarks are 28.8 percent above their year-ago levels, according to TradingEconomics. The gains follow Iran's July 19 announcement that it was withdrawing from a 31-day-old ceasefire agreement governing the Strait of Hormuz.

EIA's July Forecast Already Overtaken

The EIA's July 7 Short-Term Energy Outlook projected Brent crude would average $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026. The agency had cut its June forecast by $27 per barrel to reach that figure, crediting a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 18 that reopened the strait. Iran withdrew from that agreement on July 19, just 31 days after the MOU was signed. At $91.17, Brent has recovered $17.17 of the $27 that the EIA shaved from its June forecast in fewer than two weeks of trading.

Hormuz Throughput Collapsed 59 Percent

Iran's IRGC Navy reduced Strait of Hormuz crude throughput from 12.5 million to 5.1 million barrels per day in one week, a 59 percent decline, as Oil Authority reported July 20. The IRGC declared that "not a single drop of oil, gas, or chemical fertilizer will pass through the Strait of Hormuz without coordination and permission." Iran also conducted retaliatory strikes against Kuwaiti oil infrastructure during the same period. Tanker traffic through the strait fell to two-month lows, and LNG shipments halted for a third consecutive day.

Dual Choke-Point Risk Draws Analyst Attention

The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20 percent of global oil supply. Bab al-Mandeb, the strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, carries an additional 7.4 million barrels per day. Yemen's Houthis declared a naval blockade targeting Saudi Aramco's Yanbu terminal exports on July 20, threatening 4 million barrels per day of Saudi crude, as Oil Authority reported. A sustained closure of both straits would place approximately 25 percent of global oil and gas supply at risk, according to industry data.

Rystad Quantifies Saudi Production Exposure

Rystad Energy warned Tuesday that 2.5 million barrels per day of Saudi production is directly exposed to Houthi interdiction risk. That figure compares with total Bab al-Mandeb freight of 7.4 million barrels per day, indicating the Houthi blockade would not capture all Saudi export volumes. Saudi Aramco's Yanbu exports represent roughly $330 million in daily revenue at current Brent prices. A Saudi-led coalition vowed to protect commercial shipping from Houthi interference.

Analysts Diverge on the Price Ceiling

Zaye Capital Markets has warned that continued Hormuz restrictions could push Brent toward $100 per barrel. J.P. Morgan characterizes de-escalation as its base case but describes a sustained blockade as a tail risk. TradingEconomics models, drawing on futures strip pricing, estimate Brent at $97.47 per barrel over a 12-month horizon. The EIA's full-year 2026 Brent forecast of $82 per barrel, set in the July 7 STEO, now sits $9.17 below Tuesday's spot price.

EIA Inventory Data Due Tuesday

The EIA's weekly petroleum inventory report is scheduled for release on July 22, a day earlier than the standard Wednesday cadence. The report covers US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate stocks for the week ending July 10, 2026. It represents the last full inventory reading before the Hormuz disruption that began July 19. The Baker Hughes weekly US rig count, a leading indicator of active drilling activity, is due Friday.