Houthis Declare Naval Blockade on Saudi Arabia, Threatening 4 Million Barrels Per Day Through Bab al-Mandeb

Yemen's Houthi movement declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on July 20, 2026, targeting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and threatening the kingdom's primary seaborne export route. Brent crude briefly exceeded $90 per barrel following the announcement before retreating to $88.99 per barrel in Sunday intraday trading, according to OilPrice.com. WTI crude traded at $82.50 per barrel, up 0.88 percent on the session.

Houthi leadership framed the declaration as retaliation for what the group called a Saudi siege of Yemen, invoking the principle of an eye for an eye. Saudi Arabia's government issued no immediate response. The Houthis are backed by Iran, whose forces have been in direct conflict with the United States since earlier in 2026.

Saudi Aramco's Yanbu Route Is Now the Last Open Export Option

Saudi Aramco shifted crude exports westward out of necessity after Iran-linked drone strikes forced a precautionary shutdown of the Ras Tanura terminal on March 2, 2026. Aramco activated the East-West Pipeline, known as the Petroline, to move crude 1,201 kilometers from Abqaiq to the Yanbu South Terminal on the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia ramped Yanbu loadings from roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in February 2026 to approximately 4 million barrels per day by mid-March, according to The Maritime Executive citing Vortexa and Argus Media estimates.

The Petroline's capacity has expanded to as much as 7 million barrels per day following conversion of additional line capacity. Of that throughput, Yanbu's own refinery complex absorbs approximately 1 million barrels per day. The remaining 4 million barrels per day move to export tankers departing through Bab al-Mandeb, the chokepoint now targeted by the Houthi blockade.

Bab al-Mandeb Throughput and the Dual Chokepoint Squeeze

Bab al-Mandeb is a 29-kilometer-wide strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It carried 7.4 million barrels per day in June 2026, approximately 7 percent of global crude output, according to Al Jazeera citing shipping data. Oil Authority previously reported that Hormuz flows had collapsed 59 percent to 5.1 million barrels per day, prompting Saudi Arabia's pivot to Yanbu.

Al Jazeera data indicates that simultaneous closure of both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb would put approximately 25 percent of global oil and gas supply at risk. The Iran war has already reduced global shipments by approximately 10 percent, according to NBC News citing trade sources. A Bab al-Mandeb blockade would extend that supply squeeze to Saudi Arabia's one remaining export corridor.

Oil Authority Supply Gap Calculation

Before the conflict, Hormuz carried approximately 17 million barrels per day. That volume has now fallen to 5.1 million barrels per day. Bab al-Mandeb carried 7.4 million barrels per day in June, of which Saudi Yanbu exports represent roughly 4 million barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia's Yanbu exports of approximately 4 million barrels per day, at Sunday's WTI intraday price of $82.50 per barrel, represent roughly $330 million in daily crude revenue directly at risk from the blockade. Saudi Arabia holds no overland export route capable of substituting for that volume. A full dual-chokepoint closure would compound the loss already recorded since the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated.

Market Response

Supertanker crossings at Hormuz averaged two per day as of July 18, down from eight per day in late June, per ship-tracking data cited by OilPrice.com. Ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz fell to one event on July 18, compared with three per week before the recent escalation. Bab al-Mandeb disruptions would eliminate the one remaining route keeping Saudi crude moving to Asian markets.

Ceasefire speculation partially offset the blockade's price impact, pulling Brent back from above $90 to $88.99 during Sunday trading. WTI held at $82.50 per barrel intraday. Both contracts have gained approximately 31 percent year-to-date, reflecting persistent Middle East supply risk since the U.S.-Iran conflict began.