Iran Ceasefire Fails to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Oil Prices Hold Above $96 per Barrel

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, brokered on April 8, has so far failed to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping global crude oil prices elevated well above pre-crisis levels. Brent crude traded near $96.39 per barrel on April 10, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $95.50, both still roughly 40 percent higher than where they stood before Iran blocked the strait in late February 2026.

The strait, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply normally transits, has been effectively closed since February 28, when a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran prompted Tehran to seal the critical chokepoint. The closure removed an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day from global supply, marking what energy historians have called the largest disruption to world oil markets since the 1973 OPEC embargo.

Ceasefire Sparks Brief Selloff, Then Reality Sets In

When news of the ceasefire broke on April 8, oil markets staged their sharpest single-day retreat since April 2020. WTI futures plunged more than 16 percent to close at $94.41, while Brent shed over 14 percent to settle at $93.93. But the relief was short-lived. By April 10, both benchmarks had clawed back gains as traders realized the strait remained functionally closed.

According to vessel-tracking data, only five tankers crossed the strait on April 9, down from 11 the previous day. By April 10, just seven vessels had made the transit. Before the crisis, an average of 60 to 70 ships passed through the waterway daily, including dozens of crude oil and LNG carriers serving markets in Asia, Europe, and beyond.

Iran Demands Toll Rights as Condition for Reopening

Tehran has complicated the path to reopening by demanding the right to collect transit tolls on vessels passing through the strait, a proposal that Washington and major shipping nations have rejected as a violation of international maritime law. The toll demand adds a new layer of uncertainty to an already fragile ceasefire that was reached only hours before a U.S. deadline for escalated military action.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) CEO Sultan Al Jaber confirmed on April 9 that the strait remained closed to normal traffic despite the ceasefire, with Iran continuing to restrict and condition vessel movements. Gulf producers including Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, and ADNOC have been forced to reroute exports or store crude in onshore and floating facilities, driving up storage costs across the region.

Price Context and Market Outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude to average $103 per barrel in the second quarter, peaking near $115 per barrel before easing as production shut-ins gradually abate. The Brent-WTI spread is forecast to peak at roughly $15 per barrel in April, reflecting the outsized impact of the crisis on waterborne crude flows versus landlocked North American supply.

Western Canadian Select (WCS), the benchmark for Canadian heavy crude, has benefited from the disruption as Asian buyers scramble for non-Gulf barrels. The WCS discount to WTI has narrowed significantly from its historical average, a dynamic explored further in our coverage of pipeline capacity developments.

For real-time benchmark tracking, visit our oil prices dashboard.

What Comes Next

Energy analysts caution that even if the ceasefire holds and Iran gradually permits more transits, a return to normal shipping volumes through Hormuz could take weeks or months. Port infrastructure, insurance markets, and tanker scheduling must all reset after more than five weeks of near-total closure. Major oil companies including ExxonMobil, BP, and TotalEnergies have flagged the crisis as a material risk in upcoming quarterly filings.

The situation remains fluid. If the ceasefire collapses before the April 22 expiry, traders expect Brent could rapidly retest the $120-plus levels seen in mid-March. Conversely, a durable reopening of the strait would likely push prices back toward $80, though the timeline for such a scenario remains deeply uncertain.

Sources: CNBC, Al Jazeera, U.S. Energy Information Administration, OPEC Secretariat.