OPEC April Monthly Report: Iraq Crude Output Crashes 61% to 1.6 Million Bpd in March, Saudi Arabia at 7.8 Million as OPEC+ Logs Worst Monthly Supply Shock in Decades

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released its April Monthly Oil Market Report on April 13, revealing a production collapse with no modern precedent. Iraq's crude output plunged 61 percent in March, falling from 4.2 million barrels per day in February to just 1.6 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia cut production 23 percent from 10.1 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd. Combined, OPEC+ production fell by 7.9 million barrels per day in a single month, the largest monthly supply decline the group has ever recorded.

The figures lay bare the full scale of destruction visited on Gulf energy infrastructure since the conflict escalated in late February. In Iraq's Basra province, which normally accounts for roughly 3.1 million bpd of output, production has slumped to approximately 900,000 bpd as continuous drone and missile strikes targeted critical infrastructure. Exports from Basra are currently completely halted, depriving Iraq of nearly 90 percent of the government revenue that depends on oil receipts. Iraq's finance ministry estimates it has sufficient reserves to cover obligations through mid-May before it will need to issue bonds or seek emergency borrowing.

Specific field damage has been severe. Zubair, one of Iraq's largest producing fields with a nameplate capacity of around 400,000 bpd, saw output cut to roughly 250,000 bpd. The Majnoon field suspended production entirely following repeated drone strikes. In early March, a drone strike hit the Burjisiya logistics complex in Basra, a hub used by multiple international operators. BP's Rumaila field, which once produced around 1.4 million bpd, sustained attacks that prompted a partial evacuation of foreign personnel. Iraq declared force majeure on its foreign-operated oilfields in late March, suspending contractual obligations to international partners across North America, Europe, and Asia.

Saudi Arabia's 7.8 million bpd March production represents a sharp retreat from the 10.1 million bpd it averaged in February. Saudi Aramco has rerouted crude exports through the Petroline East-West Pipeline to Red Sea terminals at Yanbu, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely. That pipeline, restored to its capacity of 7 million bpd in early April, provides a partial lifeline but cannot fully replace the volume that previously moved through Gulf export terminals.

The OPEC report also revised the second-quarter 2026 global oil demand forecast downward by 500,000 barrels per day to 105.07 million bpd, citing transitory economic weakness and the logistical fallout from the Hormuz disruption. OPEC left its full-year 2026 demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.4 million bpd, projecting that China and India will drive a demand recovery in the second half of the year as rerouted supply restores at least partial market access.

On April 5, eight OPEC+ participating countries agreed to a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day starting in May 2026, drawing down from the 1.65 million bpd in additional voluntary adjustments in place since April 2023. The decision signals that OPEC+ is positioning for a gradual supply reintroduction if and when the Hormuz situation stabilizes.

Prices have pulled back sharply from the highs seen when the OPEC report was published. Brent crude, which traded above $103 per barrel on April 13, fell 4.6 percent on April 15 to $94.79 as the United States and Iran prepared for a second round of peace talks in Islamabad. West Texas Intermediate settled below $92 per barrel. For Canadian producers, Western Canada Select crude trades at a discount of roughly $12 to $15 per barrel below WTI, placing WCS in the range of $77 to $80 USD per barrel. While elevated by historical standards and supportive of oil sands investment, the demand uncertainty flagged in OPEC's April report is weighing on longer-dated project commitments.

ExxonMobil, which holds interests in Iraqi upstream projects through legacy partnerships, has not disclosed the specific financial impact of the force majeure declarations. However, the complete cessation of Basra exports and the suspension of multiple fields where international companies hold production-sharing agreements represents a meaningful reduction in upstream earnings exposure to Iraq across the global oil sector. Analysts noted that if peace talks succeed and Hormuz reopens to commercial traffic, April production data could show an even deeper trough before output begins to recover, given the time required to restart damaged field infrastructure safely.