OPEC+ Meets April 5 to Assess Largest Oil Supply Crisis in History as Brent Tops $107 and WTI Breaks $111

The eight OPEC+ member states producing under voluntary output cuts are scheduled to meet on April 5, 2026, as the global oil market braces for what the International Energy Agency has called the most severe supply disruption in the history of energy markets. Brent crude was trading at approximately $107.57 per barrel on Friday morning, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged to $111.29 per barrel on Thursday, briefly inverting the traditional Brent premium structure.

The Hormuz Crisis: Worse in April Than March

The ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began on February 27, 2026, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The strait normally facilitates roughly 20% of global daily oil supply and significant liquefied natural gas volumes. Shipping traffic through the chokepoint has dropped an estimated 90 to 95%, according to shipping analytics firms.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on April 1 that the supply crunch would be significantly worse in April than in March. In March, tankers loaded before the conflict were still arriving at destination ports. "In April, there is nothing," Birol stated, referring to Gulf crude shipments in transit. The IEA estimates 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day of supply has been lost since the conflict began, a figure that analysts warn could double by mid-April if the situation continues.

Brent crude has surged approximately 51% from January 2026 levels in roughly nine weeks. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $110 per barrel through April with the "war premium" intact.

OPEC+ April 5 Meeting: Pressure on Both Sides

The OPEC+ group had agreed in early March to raise collective production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. The eight participating member states and their assigned increments were: Saudi Arabia (62,000 b/d), Russia (62,000 b/d), Iraq (26,000 b/d), UAE (18,000 b/d), Kuwait (16,000 b/d), Kazakhstan (10,000 b/d), Algeria (6,000 b/d), and Oman (5,000 b/d). The OPEC Secretariat framed the decision as a response to "stable global economic indicators and healthy market fundamentals."

The April 5 meeting is being watched closely by energy markets. The key question for OPEC+ ministers is whether the group should accelerate production increases further to compensate for Hormuz-related shortfalls, or hold steady given the uncertainty about when the conflict might de-escalate. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers face a particular dilemma: their own crude exports must transit the very chokepoint that is blocked, limiting their practical ability to increase supply to market even if they choose to raise output.

The IEA is separately weighing a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) from member countries. Any SPR announcement from the IEA could be expected in the days following the OPEC+ meeting.

WCS Prices and Canadian Revenue Impact

Western Canadian Select (WCS), the benchmark price for heavy Alberta bitumen-blend crude, was trading at approximately $82.13 per barrel as of late March, roughly $12 per barrel below WTI. While WCS prices are denominated in US dollars, the vast majority of Canadian oil producers report revenues in Canadian dollars, meaning the 51% surge in WTI since January represents significant revenue upside even after currency conversion. At current levels, WCS at $82 USD translates to approximately $115 to $117 CAD per barrel at prevailing exchange rates, well above the break-even costs of Canadian oil sands operators, which typically range from $38 to $52 per barrel WTI equivalent.

Asian demand for Canadian heavy crude has surged through the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which is running at or near its 890,000 barrel per day capacity, as Pacific Rim buyers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern grades that can no longer be reliably sourced through the Strait of Hormuz.

Demand Outlook Under Pressure

Despite the supply shock, the IEA has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast downward by approximately 210,000 barrels per day, now projecting demand growth of only 640,000 b/d for the full year. High prices and deteriorating economic conditions in Europe and parts of Asia are beginning to erode consumption. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects global supply will still outpace consumption through 2026, though that forecast was issued before the full scale of the Hormuz closure was apparent.

Energy markets will be watching closely for any signal from the April 5 OPEC+ meeting about whether the cartel is prepared to compensate for the Hormuz disruption, and for any developments on the geopolitical front that might reopen the strait to commercial traffic. Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, Kpler.