US LNG Exports Hit Record 17.9 Bcf Per Day in March 2026, Henry Hub Premium to European TTF Reaches 83 Percent as Hormuz Blocks Qatar

US liquefied natural gas exports surged to a record 17.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in March 2026, an 8 percent increase over the January forecast and the second-highest monthly LNG export volume on record, as the disruption of Qatari and Gulf LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz triggered panic buying across European and Asian markets.

Record Volumes Driven by Hormuz Disruption

The EIA estimated March LNG export volumes at 11.7 million metric tons, up 1.8 million metric tons year-over-year. Europe absorbed 7.49 million tons, representing 64 percent of total US LNG shipments, as buyers sought to replace lost Qatari supply. The surge reflects the structural shift underway in global gas markets since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global LNG trade normally transits.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s largest LNG export facility, suffered damage to two liquefaction trains in a March 18 attack, knocking out an estimated 17 percent of Qatari export capacity. QatarEnergy has estimated repairs could take up to five years, creating a structural, multi-year gap in global LNG supply that US exporters are racing to fill.

Henry Hub vs. International Benchmarks: Historic Spread

The price dislocation between US domestic gas and international import benchmarks reached historic levels in Q1 2026. The Henry Hub benchmark remained relatively stable at approximately $3 per MMBtu, supported by robust Permian Basin associated gas production projected at 28 Bcf/d in 2026. International buyers, however, faced dramatically higher costs.

The spread between Henry Hub and the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) averaged $14.89 per MMBtu in March, up 83 percent compared to February. The Henry Hub to Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) spread averaged $15.23 per MMBtu over the same period, up 98 percent. The high differential between domestic US gas prices and global import benchmarks ensured all US LNG export terminals operated at or near maximum capacity through the quarter.

Plaquemines LNG and US Export Capacity Expansion

The March record was driven in part by the ramp-up of Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, which contributed to the roughly 61 percent Louisiana share of all US LNG shipments. Plaquemines carries a nameplate capacity of 20 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) and can exceed nameplate by up to 40 percent, with a long-term expansion target of 45 to 58 mtpa across 36 trains. The project cost approximately $24 billion.

The Department of Energy authorized a 13 percent export increase of 0.45 Bcf/day of additional capacity from Plaquemines during the quarter. The US Department of Energy has also received a final investment decision application for Delfin LNG, which would be the first US floating LNG facility with 13.2 mtpa of export capacity located 30 miles off the Louisiana coast.

US LNG export capacity is projected to more than double between 2024 and 2028. The EIA forecasts full-year 2026 exports to average 17.0 Bcf/d, up from 16.4 Bcf/d in the January forecast, with 2027 exports projected at 18.6 Bcf/d. Both figures would surpass the previous annual record of 15.1 Bcf/d set in 2025.

Global Supply Shock: Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait

The loss of Hormuz LNG flows is not limited to Qatar. The UAE, which exported approximately 0.7 Bcf/d of LNG through the strait in 2024, has also seen flows disrupted. Kuwait and Bahrain, both LNG importers relying on Gulf inflows, have sought alternative supply from US and West African sources. The combined disruption has tightened global LNG availability at a scale markets have not previously experienced.

The IEA’s April 2026 market report flagged prolonged price risks as the situation in the Middle East shows no immediate signs of resolution. Second-round US-Iran talks targeting Thursday represent the first potential de-escalation signal, though market participants remain skeptical that a diplomatic resolution would quickly restore full Hormuz throughput given the Ras Laffan facility damage timeline.

Canadian LNG and AECO Implications

For Canada, the global LNG price shock carries significant strategic relevance. AECO natural gas, the Canadian benchmark, trades at a discount to Henry Hub that ranges from $0.50 to $2.00 per MMBtu depending on pipeline capacity. With Henry Hub at $3/MMBtu and AECO at approximately $1.50 to $2.50/MMBtu in April, Canadian gas producers remain insulated from the international price premium, though LNG Canada in Kitimat, British Columbia, once at full capacity, would provide direct exposure to JKM-linked Asian prices for Shell and its partners.

The widening Henry Hub premium to international benchmarks increases the economic case for accelerating Canadian LNG export infrastructure. The broader commodity price surge also supports royalty and fiscal revenues for provincial governments in Alberta and British Columbia at a time when the federal-provincial pipeline negotiations remain unresolved.