Baker Hughes Releases April 2 Rig Count Early for Good Friday: US Adds 5 Rigs to 548 as Texas and New Mexico Lead Q2 Recovery

Baker Hughes released its weekly North American rig count data on Thursday, April 2, 2026, one day ahead of the usual Friday publication date to account for the Good Friday holiday. The report showed the United States adding five rigs over the prior week, bringing the total active rig count to 548, the highest weekly figure since late January.

Oil-directed rigs increased by two to reach 411, while natural gas rigs climbed by three to 130. Miscellaneous rigs remained unchanged at seven. The offshore count held steady at eleven, concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico.

At the state level, Texas led all markets with 233 active rigs, up two from the prior week, reflecting continued Permian Basin and Eagle Ford activity despite a modest pullback in horizontal rig counts during the first quarter. New Mexico posted 103 rigs, also up one, with operators in the Delaware Basin accelerating pad development as WTI prices sustained levels above $100 per barrel. Louisiana added one rig to reach 40, driven by Haynesville Shale natural gas drilling. North Dakota slipped by one to 27 as some Bakken operators shifted capital allocation toward Q3 completions programs. Oklahoma was unchanged.

WTI Near $105 Supports Drilling Economics Across Basins

The rig count improvement comes as West Texas Intermediate crude trades near $105 per barrel in early April, a level that comfortably supports drilling economics across all major US basins. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, which escalated sharply on April 2 following US-Iran military developments, has added a $6 to $8 per barrel geopolitical risk premium to global benchmark prices, providing additional justification for operators to hold or expand their active programs.

The Permian Basin remains the dominant driver of US production growth, with total output holding near 6.2 million barrels per day despite a year-over-year rig count decline of 10 to 13 per cent. Operators have offset the lower rig count with longer lateral lengths, improved completion designs and higher initial production rates per well. Chevron recently disclosed it had reached a historic one million barrels of oil equivalent per day across its Permian operations, a milestone that underscores the basin's productivity per rig in the current cycle.

Gas-directed drilling's rise of three rigs to 130 reflects improving sentiment around natural gas fundamentals heading into summer. Henry Hub front-month futures trade near $3.03 per MMBtu, but the forward curve implies recovery to approximately $3.86 by November and $4.70 by December as storage draws, LNG export demand from Gulf Coast terminals, and power generation demand all tighten the supply-demand balance.

OPEC+ April 5 Meeting Adds Uncertainty to Drilling Outlook

The broader context for US drilling activity includes a critical OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for April 5, where the group's core eight members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will review implementation of the 206,000-barrel-per-day production increase that began in April. The hike was agreed in early March based on forecasts of stable global demand growth, but the Hormuz crisis has complicated the calculus. Actual Iranian export disruptions may be partially or fully offsetting the announced OPEC+ volume additions, leaving the net supply impact unclear ahead of the meeting.

For US independent producers, a sustained OPEC+ output increase would be a headwind to prices and drilling economics. Conversely, if the April 5 meeting results in a pause or reversal of the output hike in response to Middle East supply risk, WTI prices could push further above $108, strengthening the case for additional rig additions through Q2 and Q3 2026.

Year-Over-Year Context: Efficiency Offsets Lower Rig Count

The current 548-rig total compares with approximately 600 rigs active in the same week one year ago. The year-over-year decline of roughly 8 per cent reflects the industry's shift toward capital discipline and efficiency, with operators choosing to maximize cash returns from existing wells rather than aggressively expand their active footprint. At current WTI prices above $100, however, there is growing pressure from investors and boards to sanction incremental growth projects, particularly in the Permian and Haynesville basins.

Two new natural gas pipeline projects, Blackcomb (approximately 2.5 billion cubic feet per day) and Hugh Brinson (approximately 1.5 billion cubic feet per day), are expected to be operational in the Permian Basin by end of 2026. When complete, these projects will relieve the gas takeaway constraints that have limited crude oil growth in certain parts of the basin, potentially unlocking additional rig additions as operators gain confidence in gas egress for associated production.

The Canadian rig count was not included in Thursday's early release and will be reported separately. Canadian drilling activity has been constrained by early spring breakup conditions across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the Petroleum Services Association of Canada projecting a total 2026 well count of 5,709 for the country, implying a strong second-half recovery as ground conditions firm and operators accelerate deferred Q1 programs into the summer and fall drilling season.