Baker Hughes July 10 Rig Count Due as US Oil Rigs Rise to 445 and WTI Posts Nearly 5% Weekly Gain
US crude oil rigs rose to 445 for the week of July 3, Baker Hughes reports, as WTI holds above $72 on a nearly 5% weekly gain from Iran-Hormuz tensions.
Baker Hughes will release its weekly US rig count for the week ending July 10, 2026 this afternoon. The most recent report, covering the week ending July 3, showed US crude oil rigs rising to 445 from 440 the prior week, according to TradingEconomics. That five-rig increase arrived as WTI crude futures hold above $72 per barrel, tracking a weekly gain of nearly 5% on renewed US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Permian Efficiency: What 241 Rigs and Record Output Tell Us
The Permian Basin remains the anchor of the US count. As reported by Oil Authority, the Permian ran 241 active rigs while producing roughly 48% of US crude, with total US output at a record 13.6 million barrels per day. That math implies roughly 6.53 million barrels per day from Permian rigs, or approximately 27,100 barrels per day per active rig. Longer laterals, tighter completion spacing, and efficiency gains from ExxonMobil's Pioneer integration have pushed per-rig output to historic highs across the Delaware and Midland sub-basins.
WTI Context: Weekly Recovery, Monthly Slide
WTI crude oil traded at $72.04 per barrel on Friday morning, per OilPrice.com data with an 11-minute delay. Earlier this week, WTI slipped to $71.57 per barrel on the EIA's 3 million-barrel crude inventory build, as reported by Oil Authority, before recovering on Iran-Hormuz tensions. The benchmark is tracking a weekly gain of nearly 5%, per TradingEconomics. That 17.95% monthly slide, which took WTI from roughly $87.75 per barrel a month ago to $72 today, reflects OPEC's coordinated production increase, per TradingEconomics. Brent crude traded at $76.41 per barrel on Friday morning, per OilPrice.com.
Goldman's $80 Brent Target and Permian Revenue Math
Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80 per barrel on Hormuz normalization, as reported by Oil Authority. At $80 Brent, WTI typically trades $3 to $4 per barrel below the ICE benchmark, implying a WTI scenario near $76 to $77. From today's $72, that represents 5% to 7% additional upside if Goldman's Q4 thesis proves correct. Each $1 per barrel increase in WTI adds roughly $6.5 million per day in Permian revenue, based on 6.53 million barrels per day of basin output. A move from $72 to Goldman's implied $76 to $77 WTI scenario adds roughly $26 million to $33 million per day across the Permian.
Friday Count: What to Watch This Afternoon
Baker Hughes typically publishes the weekly count on Friday afternoon, with today's July 10 release expected around 1 p.m. ET. The July 3 uptick of five oil rigs was the first week-over-week increase in several weeks. Analysts will watch whether operators committed to further additions as WTI climbed through the week. Capital discipline has been the dominant theme among large Permian operators in 2026: most have held rig counts flat even as US production reached records. Macquarie Group analysts said Friday that they expect US-Iran tension to be relatively short-lived, per Rigzone, which would remove the Iran risk premium from WTI and test whether the five-rig rebound reflects durable confidence or a one-week reaction.
Published by Oil Authority, edited by Adam Humphreys
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