Brent Crude at $72.51 as Hormuz Cargo Strike Halts Tanker Surge; Pakistan Issues Emergency LNG Tender

Brent crude settled at $71.99 per barrel on Friday's ICE close and was trading at $72.51 in early Monday trading, up 0.73%, per Trading Economics. WTI front-month futures were at $69.91 per barrel, up 0.98%, per OilPrice.com. Both gains followed a weekend cargo vessel strike near the Omani coast that the IMO attributed to Iran, reversing a brief but meaningful recovery in Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic.

What Happened Over the Weekend

On June 26, 70 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in a single day, the highest daily count since March 1, per Al Jazeera. That figure was more than double the previous day's transit count. A partial US-Iran ceasefire signed June 17 and US Navy escort operations had gradually restored shipping after the crisis peaked in spring. That recovery stalled on Thursday when a cargo vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile near the Omani coast, prompting the IMO to suspend its Hormuz evacuation plan.

Brent rose as much as 4% on Thursday following the IMO announcement, before pulling back more than 2% on Friday, per Al Jazeera. Monday's early trading price of $72.51 is 42% below Brent's March crisis peak of $126 per barrel. The decline from peak reflects the partial normalization of Hormuz traffic since the June 17 ceasefire memorandum signed by the US and Iranian President Pezeshkian.

How Far Prices Have Fallen from the EIA's April Forecast

In its April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA raised its 2026 full-year Brent forecast to $96 per barrel average and projected a Q2 peak of $115, driven by the Hormuz shut-in of an estimated 9.1 million barrels per day. Brent's June 29 price of $72.51 lands 24.5% below that annual average forecast. The ceasefire and partial traffic resumption have erased more of the war premium than the April EIA modeling assumed.

Saudi Arabia cut production from 10 million to 8 million barrels per day in March. Iraqi southern field output fell from 4.3 million to 1.3 million barrels per day, a 70% reduction, according to Wikipedia's documented crisis timeline. Saudi Aramco has since restarted crude loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal, idle for nearly four months, and Iraqi output has partially recovered. Those resumptions helped push Hormuz traffic toward the 70-vessel June 26 high before Thursday's incident reversed the trend.

Pakistan Emergency LNG Tender: The Spot Market Cost Is $43 Million Per Cargo

Pakistan's state energy company issued an emergency LNG tender over the weekend, seeking a cargo for June 30 to July 4 delivery with offers due Monday, per Bloomberg. Platts assessed the JKM Asian LNG benchmark at $15.86 per MMBtu as of June 29, per Investing.com. Henry Hub front-month gas traded at $3.20 per MMBtu on the same day, per CME data via Trading Economics. The spot premium between Asian LNG and US domestic gas is $12.66 per MMBtu.

At a standard Q-Flex cargo size of 3.4 billion cubic feet, that $12.66 per MMBtu premium adds $43 million to the cost of each emergency purchase relative to what US power generators pay for equivalent volumes. Oil Authority calculated that figure by multiplying the JKM-Henry Hub spread by a standard 3.4 Bcf cargo, using the June 29, 2026 prices cited above. Pakistan has issued multiple emergency spot tenders since the Hormuz crisis began in February, each time competing against European and Asian buyers for scarce LNG cargoes.

Analyst View on the Recovery Path

Sparta analyst June Goh framed the challenge in terms of onshore crude inventory buildup inside the Gulf. "There is a pressing need for tankers to enter and offload high crude stocks from onshore tanks in order for normal production to resume again," Goh said, per Al Jazeera. "Security of the passageway is paramount to recover lost supply." The 70-vessel June 26 transit count was the first sign those tanks were starting to drain.

Hormuz Status and Data Releases to Watch

The US Navy announced a widened navigable route near Oman on June 27, maintaining pressure on Iranian control of the waterway. Iran claimed the strait was closed again on June 20, citing Israeli ceasefire violations, before that US announcement. The Hormuz corridor handles approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply in peacetime, per the EIA.

The EIA publishes its weekly US crude oil inventory report on Wednesday. A significant draw would reinforce the demand-recovery narrative that has supported Brent above $70. Baker Hughes releases its weekly global rig count on Friday. Any decline in Permian or Gulf Coast rigs would signal continued capital restraint among US producers despite the partial price recovery.