Brent Falls to $80 After US-Iran Hormuz Deal; Goldman Slashes 2026 Forecast in Second Cut This Week

ICE Brent crude futures fell to $80.07 per barrel in early Tuesday trading in Europe, down 3.57 percent on the session, per TradingEconomics. The benchmark has now lost roughly $8 per barrel across two consecutive sessions. Nymex WTI traded at $77.55 per barrel, down 3.96 percent on the day.

Deal Details: 60 Days and a Signing in Geneva

President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social on Sunday that the United States and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal. Pakistan served as mediator, and a formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Geneva.

The memorandum of understanding extends the existing ceasefire for 60 days. Under the terms, the United States authorized toll-free shipping through the Strait and agreed to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. The 60-day window also opens negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, though neither party has publicly released specific terms on enriched uranium stockpiles.

Significant challenges remain before the arrangement becomes durable. Israel has refused to withdraw from occupied Lebanese territory, and Iran has stated that the Lebanon conflict must end as a condition of its cooperation. The two parties have 60 days to resolve Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a timeline far shorter than the years allocated for the 2015 nuclear agreement.

How $25 Per Barrel Disappeared in 48 Hours

The EIA's June 9 press release projected Brent averaging $105 per barrel in June and July under a continued Strait closure. Brent now trades at $80.07 per barrel, 25 dollars below that closed-strait assumption. Goldman Sachs on Tuesday cut its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $80 per barrel from $90, the bank's second downward revision in one week.

Goldman also cut its 2027 Brent average to $75 per barrel from $80 and set its fourth-quarter 2026 WTI target at $75 per barrel. The bank brought forward its assumption for Persian Gulf export normalization by one month, to end-July from end-August. Goldman cited a more optimistic read on mine clearance, insurance, and shipping logistics than prevailing market commentary.

Goldman's $80 fourth-quarter 2026 base case still implies a 10-percent residual risk premium against the bank's estimated pre-war Brent baseline. In a downside scenario with faster supply recovery and demand erosion, Goldman puts fourth-quarter 2026 Brent at $70 per barrel and 2027 below $60. The bank's upside scenario, a prolonged Hormuz closure, points to Brent above $130 in late 2026.

Hormuz: 6 Million Barrels Per Day on the Table

The Strait of Hormuz carried 20.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products in the fourth quarter of 2025, per the EIA's Global Energy Security Data report. After US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 prompted restrictions on access, first-quarter 2026 flows fell to 14.6 million barrels per day. That decline of 6.1 million barrels per day represented a 30-percent year-over-year drop, with crude oil at 10.7 million bpd and petroleum liquids at 3.9 million bpd.

At Tuesday's Brent price of $80.07 per barrel, restoring those 6.1 million barrels per day to pre-conflict routing would represent approximately $178 billion per year in oil value moving through the waterway. Wood Mackenzie has cautioned that Middle Eastern supply chains may require several months to normalize even after a formal reopening, citing shipping insurance, mine clearance, and tanker routing logistics as the primary constraints. That divergence from Goldman's more optimistic end-July timeline maps to a $10 per barrel swing in fourth-quarter Brent prices, based on Goldman's own scenario range.

What to Watch This Week

The formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday, June 19, is the market's next major catalyst. Any language in the final text on implementation timelines or shipping security provisions will move futures. The EIA weekly crude inventory report publishes Wednesday at 10:30 AM Eastern; OECD oil inventories stand at their lowest level since 2003, per EIA data, reflecting second-quarter 2026 draws of 6.3 million barrels per day.