Canadian Natural Resources Posts Record Q4 2025 Output of 1.66 Million BOE/d as Sole Owner of Albian Oil Sands Mines

Fort McMurray, AB: Canadian Natural Resources Limited capped 2025 with a company production record, averaging 1,659,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter, up 15 percent year-over-year, as the Calgary-based producer became the sole owner of the Albian oil sands mining complex north of Fort McMurray.

The record came after Canadian Natural Resources completed its acquisition of Shell Canada's remaining interest in the Albian oil sands mines on November 1, 2025, adding roughly 315,000 barrels per day of mining capacity to its portfolio. The transaction, structured as an asset swap, transferred full operational control of the Albian complex to Canadian Natural Resources, while Shell Canada received an increased ownership stake in the Scotford Upgrader and Quest carbon capture and storage facility near Edmonton.

Oil sands mining and upgrading output hit 620,000 barrels per day in Q4 2025, with upgrader utilization running at 105 percent of nameplate capacity. The strong performance reflected the benefit of sole operatorship, allowing the company to optimize scheduling across the mine, extraction, and upgrader systems without the coordination requirements of a joint-venture structure.

WTI and WCS Context

The record production arrived during a period of strong crude prices. West Texas Intermediate now trades near $112 per barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has removed millions of barrels per day of Middle Eastern supply from global markets. However, Western Canada Select for May delivery is trading at a discount of roughly $14.60 per barrel below WTI, placing WCS around $97 per barrel. The wider-than-usual differential reflects upcoming oil sands maintenance turnarounds scheduled for late April and May, which will temporarily reduce pipeline nominations.

Despite the differential, WCS prices near $97 per barrel represent some of the most profitable operating conditions in the history of the Canadian oil sands. Canadian Natural Resources operates its mining and upgrading segment at an all-in sustaining cost well below $40 per barrel, generating exceptional free cash flow at current price levels.

2026 Production Guidance

For the full year 2026, Canadian Natural Resources has guided for production between 1,615,000 and 1,665,000 BOE/d, roughly in line with the Q4 2025 record pace. The company holds one of the lowest-decline-rate asset portfolios in the Canadian oil patch, owing to its heavy weighting toward oil sands mining, which does not experience conventional reservoir decline.

The broader oil sands sector is forecast to produce a record 4.85 million barrels per day in 2026, according to the Canadian Energy Centre, with Canadian Natural Resources accounting for a disproportionately large share of that growth following the Albian acquisition.

Jackpine Expansion Deferred Over Carbon Policy

One major project remains on hold: the Jackpine mine expansion, estimated at $8.25 billion. Canadian Natural Resources has deferred the project indefinitely, citing unresolved federal carbon pricing and methane regulation policy. The Alberta and federal governments missed an April 1, 2026 deadline to reach a carbon pricing framework agreement acceptable to oil sands producers, leaving the long-term regulatory environment uncertain for capital-intensive expansion projects.

The deferral is notable given current price conditions: WTI near $112 per barrel would, under almost any capital allocation model, support greenfield oil sands development. The binding constraint is regulatory uncertainty, not commodity price.

Albian Mines: A Cornerstone Asset

The Albian complex encompasses the Muskeg River and Jackpine open-pit mines, as well as bitumen extraction and froth treatment infrastructure, located approximately 75 kilometres north of Fort McMurray in the Athabasca Oil Sands region. Originally developed by Shell Canada and Chevron, Canadian Natural Resources acquired majority ownership in stages beginning in 2004 before assuming full control in November 2025.

Synthetic crude produced at the Albian upgrader commands a premium to WTI due to its low sulfur content and high API gravity, making it especially attractive to refiners currently constrained by the reduced availability of sulfur-rich Middle Eastern grades. With sole operatorship now secured, Canadian Natural Resources controls the full value chain from mine face through to synthetic crude at the upgrader gate, a position that provides both operational flexibility and stronger netback pricing.

The company has not announced a timeline to revisit the Jackpine expansion decision. Analysts expect any positive final investment decision signal to come only after a resolution of the federal-provincial carbon policy standoff, which may not occur before the end of 2026.