EIA Wednesday Report Shows Eighth Straight US Crude Draw to 426.5 Million Barrels, 5 Percent Below Five-Year Average

The US Energy Information Administration released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Wednesday, June 10, covering the week ending June 5. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million barrels. The draw was the eighth consecutive weekly decline, and stocks now sit 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Deficit Widens From 3 Percent to 5 Percent in One Week

The prior EIA report, covering the week ending May 29, showed commercial inventories at 433.7 million barrels and 3% below the five-year average. The June 5 report puts that gap at 5%, a two-percentage-point widening in a single reporting period. Oil Authority calculated the implied five-year average baseline at approximately 447 million barrels by back-solving from the EIA's reported 3% deficit on 433.7 million barrels (433.7 divided by 0.97). At the average draw pace of the past two weeks, 7.6 million barrels per week, US commercial stocks would fall another 15 million barrels over the next two weeks. That would push the deficit to more than 8% below the five-year average by late June, absent a change in supply or demand.

OECD oil stockpiles have reached their lowest levels since 2003, per the EIA's June 9 press release. The US commercial deficit is contained relative to that broader picture, but the week-over-week widening confirms the Hormuz supply gap is now visibly eroding domestic inventory buffers.

Refineries Running at Near-Maximum Capacity

US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day during the reporting week, with refineries operating at 95.3% of capacity, per the EIA report. Gasoline production rose to 9.7 million barrels per day and distillate fuel output reached 5.2 million barrels per day. Total product demand over the latest four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, up 3.5% from the same period a year ago.

Motor gasoline inventories edged up 0.2 million barrels but remain 6% below the five-year average. Distillate fuel inventories fell 0.2 million barrels and sit 13% below the five-year average. Propane inventories rose 1.1 million barrels and stand 35% above the five-year average, reflecting lower industrial heating demand in warmer months. Refineries running at 95.3% capacity have little slack to absorb further crude supply reductions without drawing additional commercial stocks.

Import Volumes Fall 5.8 Percent Year Over Year

Crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million barrels per day for the week ending June 5, per the EIA report. That was down 0.5 million barrels per day from the prior week and 5.8% below the comparable four-week period a year ago. The year-over-year import decline is a direct consequence of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which cut off Middle Eastern crude previously routed to US refiners via Persian Gulf tanker lanes.

WTI crude traded at $90.22 per barrel in early Thursday trading on June 11, per OilPrice.com, down from $94.32 per barrel at the time of Wednesday's EIA release. The intraday softening suggests traders are weighing the ongoing demand destruction the EIA quantified on June 9, when the agency cut its 2026 global demand forecast by 1.1 million barrels per day versus 2025. Baker Hughes releases its weekly rig count on Friday, June 12, which will show whether US drillers are adding rigs in response to elevated crude prices.

EIA Forecasts Global Depletion Accelerates in Q3 2026

EIA projected in its June 9 press release that global commercial inventories are depleting at 6.3 million barrels per day through Q2 2026 and will accelerate to 7.6 million barrels per day in Q3 2026. Middle Eastern producers have cut output by more than 11 million barrels per day following the Hormuz disruption. The Q3 acceleration implies the US commercial deficit, currently 5% below the five-year average, faces further pressure through the summer if no partial Hormuz reopening or ceasefire changes supply flows.

The EIA forecasts Brent crude will average $95 per barrel for full-year 2026, assuming partial market restructuring through alternative supply routes. US commercial crude at 426.5 million barrels represents 95.2% of the 447-million-barrel five-year average baseline, a ratio that will be watched closely as the market heads into Q3 and the higher forecast depletion pace takes hold.