ExxonMobil Targets 1.8 Million Barrels Per Day in Permian Basin for 2026 After Record Q4 Output

ExxonMobil is pushing to produce 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from the Permian Basin in 2026, up from 1.6 million boe/d in 2025, as the supermajor continues to extract value from its $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources. The ramp-up would mark the latest milestone in what has become the most aggressive production growth campaign in U.S. shale history.

The company disclosed its 2026 Permian target alongside updated long-term guidance showing a path to 2.3 million boe/d by 2030. If achieved, that would represent roughly a doubling of the output ExxonMobil was producing from the basin before the Pioneer deal closed in May 2024.

Pioneer Integration Drives Efficiency Gains

The Pioneer acquisition gave ExxonMobil roughly 850,000 net acres in the core Midland Basin, creating a contiguous position stretching across more than 1.4 million net acres. The combined acreage has allowed the company to drill longer lateral wells, consolidate surface infrastructure, and deploy its proprietary cube development model across a wider area.

Cube development, which involves simultaneously completing multiple wells across vertically stacked formations, reduces per-well costs by sharing drilling pads, frac crews, and production facilities. ExxonMobil says the approach has lowered its Permian breakeven to below $35 per barrel, providing a substantial buffer even after the recent crude price volatility.

WTI crude has swung sharply in early April 2026, plunging from above $117 to approximately $95.50 per barrel following the April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement. Brent crude fell to $94.80. Despite the pullback, prices remain well above ExxonMobil’s stated breakeven, suggesting the company’s drilling program will proceed as planned.

Chevron Also Crosses Key Threshold

Chevron, ExxonMobil’s chief rival in the Permian, reached its own milestone in Q4 2025, finally hitting one million boe/d from the basin. Chevron’s Permian growth has come at a different pace, relying more heavily on optimization of existing acreage in the Delaware Basin rather than transformational acquisitions.

Combined, the two companies now produce nearly three million boe/d from the Permian alone, underscoring the basin’s outsized role in global oil supply. Total Permian production across all operators now exceeds 6.2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 46% of total U.S. crude output.

Supply Glut Pressures Despite Record Output

The production achievements come against a backdrop of weakening global margins. Both ExxonMobil and Chevron reported lower annual profits in 2025 compared to the windfall years of 2022 and 2023, as a global supply surplus pushed crude prices down from their peaks. The combination of growing U.S. shale output, OPEC+ members producing above their quotas, and slowing demand growth in China has created a structurally oversupplied market.

Service companies including Halliburton, Baker Hughes have reported steady but cautious demand from Permian operators. The latest Baker Hughes rig count showed the total North American count at 690, down 53 rigs year over year, though the Permian itself has seen minimal rig attrition as the major operators maintain near-full drilling schedules.

Canadian Operators Watch the Differential

ExxonMobil’s Permian dominance also has implications for Canadian producers. Western Canada Select (WCS) crude settled at $16.15 below WTI on April 6, its widest discount since early 2024. As Permian barrels increasingly compete for Gulf Coast refinery capacity, Canadian heavy crude faces additional competitive pressure, particularly at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub.

ConocoPhillips, which operates in both the Permian and western Canada, has said it will prioritize its lowest-cost barrels, which increasingly come from its Lower 48 shale portfolio. This capital allocation trend, replicated across many international operators, reinforces the Permian’s position as the preferred investment destination for upstream capital.

What Comes Next

ExxonMobil’s first-quarter 2026 earnings, expected in late April, will provide the first detailed look at Permian production volumes for the year. Analysts expect the company to report Q1 output of approximately 1.75 million boe/d, with the 1.8 million target achievable by mid-year as new pad developments come online in the Midland and Delaware sub-basins.

Beyond 2026, the trajectory points toward the Permian Basin becoming a two-million-barrel-per-day province for ExxonMobil alone, a scale of production that would have been unthinkable before the shale revolution. Whether commodity prices cooperate is another question, but with breakevens under $35, ExxonMobil appears committed to running full speed regardless.