Permian Basin Oil Output Hits 7.12 Million BPD as Baker Hughes US Rig Count Drops to 545, Down 7 Percent Year Over Year

The Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico has set a new production record of 7.12 million barrels of oil per day, representing 54.8 percent of total US crude output, even as the Baker Hughes weekly rig count fell to 545 for the week ending April 10, 2026. The data underlines a structural shift where fewer rigs are producing more oil than at any point in the basin's history.

The divergence between shrinking rig activity and rising output is the defining feature of the current Permian drilling cycle. ExxonMobil, which integrated Pioneer Natural Resources following its $63 billion acquisition, now produces approximately 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day across its combined Permian position. The company has guided toward 12.5 percent production growth in the basin for 2026, deploying advanced proppant technology and digital monitoring tools that reduce wellbore incidents and accelerate well completion times, enabling higher output with fewer active rigs.

The broader Permian achieved 3.9 percent year-over-year production growth despite losing more than three dozen active rigs from last spring's count. There are currently 117 active rigs operating in the basin. The drilled-but-uncompleted well inventory climbed to 677 DUCs, up 7.5 percent month over month, creating a backlog of future production ready to be activated without additional drilling capital. That pipeline of uncompleted wells provides operators with a production buffer in periods of price volatility.

The national picture from Baker Hughes shows a rig landscape under sustained pressure. Total US rigs fell by three in the week ending April 10 to 545, the lowest reading since late March. Oil-directed rigs held at 411, while gas rigs fell three to 127 and miscellaneous rigs held at seven. The overall count is running 38 rigs below year-ago levels, a 7 percent annual decline that reflects the industry's broad efficiency improvement across all producing basins, not a pullback driven by weak prices. WTI crude was trading near $90.72 per barrel as of April 16, with Brent at approximately $96.83.

One bright spot in the weekly rig data was the Gulf of Mexico, where the count rose by three to 13 active rigs, the highest reading since December 2024. Offshore activity has been supported by long-cycle project commitments made during lower-price periods, and deepwater economics have improved materially with Brent trading near $97. The offshore resurgence adds to the picture of a US upstream sector that is producing at record or near-record rates despite a lower headline rig count.

The geopolitical context shaping oil prices is directly relevant to Permian producers' planning horizons. With OPEC+ adding 206,000 barrels per day to May production while 230 tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, the supply-demand calculus for US producers is complex. Higher Brent prices benefit Permian operators selling crude into export markets through Gulf Coast terminals, but tanker route uncertainty adds freight risk to netback calculations.

ConocoPhillips, the fourth-largest Permian operator by acreage, faces margin pressure in the current environment. Analysts have projected a 15 percent earnings decline for the company in 2026 as crude price volatility and higher operating costs compress returns on its Permian and broader North American portfolio. ConocoPhillips' Permian acreage is high-quality, but the company requires consistent reinvestment to sustain output growth at the pace set by ExxonMobil's post-Pioneer operation and Chevron's integrated Delaware Basin program.

Services companies are watching the efficiency trends closely. Halliburton and other major oilfield services providers have noted that the shift toward pad drilling, longer laterals, and data-driven completion design is allowing operators to extract materially more hydrocarbons per well. This efficiency gain is structural rather than cyclical, meaning the rig-to-production relationship has fundamentally changed from the shale boom era of 2014 to 2019. Operators today can hold or grow production with a rig count 20 to 30 percent below peak levels.

For Canadian producers watching US benchmark pricing, WTI at $90.72 translates into supportive Western Canadian Select netbacks even as the WCS-WTI differential has widened in recent weeks. Alberta producers shipping barrels through Trans Mountain to Pacific markets or by pipeline south to US Gulf Coast refineries are benefiting from elevated US benchmark pricing even if the Canadian heavy oil discount creates some headwind on gross realizations. For a detailed look at that differential and its impact on Alberta producers, see our coverage of the WCS differential widening to $16.15 per barrel.

The 7.12 million BPD figure from the Permian alone underscores why the United States has maintained its position as the world's top crude producer through a period of declining rig activity. Basin output growth of 3.9 percent year over year is tracking above the 2 to 3 percent range that many analysts projected entering 2026, driven largely by ExxonMobil's Pioneer integration and the continued maturation of Midland Basin and Delaware Basin core acreage across all major operators. The combination of record production, a rising DUC inventory, and efficiency-driven cost reductions positions the Permian to sustain its dominance of US supply growth well into 2027.