Brent Crude Settles at $71.99 and WTI at $69.23 as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Reaches 75 Percent of Prewar Flow

ICE Brent crude settled at $71.99 per barrel on Friday, June 26, a decline of $3.27 or 4.34 percent on the day. CME WTI crude settled at $69.23 per barrel, down 3.74 percent. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since February 27, 2026, the last trading session before the US-Iran conflict disrupted Persian Gulf shipping lanes.

Hormuz Traffic Restoration Drives Weekly Price Collapse

Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated through the week, restoring Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75 percent of prewar levels according to market data. Saudi Arabia resumed loading tankers at its Ras Tanura terminal, signaling a coordinated output ramp-up by Gulf producers. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that Hormuz flows were "close to those before the start of the Iran war," adding that full normalization would require additional weeks for mine clearance operations.

The US-Iran framework accord, signed June 18, 2026, required Iran to immediately reopen the Strait and the US to lift its naval blockade. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif mediated the negotiations. At the time of signing, the International Energy Agency estimated the daily supply shortfall from the conflict at 14 million barrels, with over 500 vessels awaiting exit from the Persian Gulf.

The $24 Gap: EIA April Forecast Versus Friday Close

In its April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected Brent crude would average $96 per barrel for all of 2026 and peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter. Those forecasts reflected the then-effective closure of the Strait, which the EIA calculated had suppressed 9.1 million barrels per day of April throughput. Oil Authority covered that forecast at the time: EIA April 2026 STEO: $96 Brent Average, $115 Q2 Peak.

Friday's $71.99 Brent settlement sits $24.01 per barrel, or 25 percent, below the EIA's $96 annual average forecast. That gap represents the Hormuz war premium embedded in the April STEO baseline, now largely erased by the peace framework. Against the EIA's $115 Q2 peak projection, Friday's close reflects a $43.01 discount.

Tensions Persist Inside the 60-Day Negotiation Window

The framework accord opened a 60-day negotiation period for broader US-Iran issues, closing in mid-August 2026. US President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by directing drone strikes against ships in the Strait. Iran's Revolutionary Guard also issued warnings against unauthorized Hormuz crossings, sustaining a residual friction risk that keeps the peace framework's durability uncertain.

Brent recorded its largest weekly percentage decline in months, with the week-over-week drop exceeding 10 percent. Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait joined in boosting output following the framework signing. Maritime safety groups noted that the security situation remains "volatile" pending additional de-escalation steps, a caveat that limits how quickly shipping operators will fully normalize route coverage.

Supply-Demand Recalibration Ahead

A 14-million-barrel-per-day shortfall dominated global supply-demand balances for roughly four months from late February to late June 2026. With Persian Gulf exports at 75 percent of prewar levels, the immediate shortfall has narrowed substantially but has not yet fully closed. Al Jazeera reported at least 20 million barrels exiting the strait in a single 24-hour period as of June 25, reflecting rapid but still incomplete restoration.

The pace of additional mine clearance and diplomatic progress through mid-August will determine whether the market faces a net surplus or a gradual return to equilibrium. Oil market analysts will need to revise 2026 annual supply-demand forecasts materially below April baselines. At $71.99 Brent, the market is pricing in substantial, durable supply restoration from the Persian Gulf.