Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls to Zero Saturday After 25-Ship Thursday Surge, Goldman Moves Recovery Forecast to Late July

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to zero at 06:25 on Saturday, June 20, with no commercial vessels moving eastbound through the chokepoint. The halt followed a burst of activity on Thursday, June 18, when 25 ships transited the strait, the highest one-day count at Hormuz since June 2. Brent crude settled at $80.59 per barrel on Friday's ICE close, and WTI crude settled at $76.54 per barrel on the CME, reflecting oil markets pricing in a gradual reopening that Saturday's data does not yet confirm.

Four Supertankers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE Led Thursday Transit

Among Thursday's 25 transiting vessels were three Very Large Crude Carriers from Saudi Arabia and one VLCC from the United Arab Emirates. Each VLCC can carry up to 2 million barrels of oil per load, giving the four supertankers a combined theoretical capacity of 8 million barrels. Prewar, the Strait of Hormuz handled approximately 21 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids, equivalent to roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Even if those four supertankers sailed at full loads, their combined 8 million barrels represents 38 percent of the strait's prewar daily crude and product throughput, an Oil Authority calculation based on EIA data.

600 Ships and 20,000 Seafarers Remain Stranded in Gulf Waters

An estimated 600 ships and 20,000 seafarers remain stranded in Gulf waters, according to Energy Connects, accumulating cargo that cannot move until Hormuz transit normalizes. Tehran agreed to allow ships to cross Hormuz without paying tolls for 60 days from the agreement date, and the terms set a 30-day deadline for demining operations to clear technical and military obstacles from the waterway. The US Navy ended its blockade following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in Islamabad on June 19, but maritime insurers and tanker operators have cited regulatory clearances and underwriting hurdles as factors delaying faster booking recovery. Oil Authority reported that Brent fell to $79.04 on the Islamabad MOU signing, as markets responded before physical tanker flows had confirmed the deal's implementation.

Goldman Sachs Moves Gulf Export Recovery Forecast Two Weeks Earlier to Late July

Goldman Sachs moved its Persian Gulf export recovery projection to late July from a previous estimate of late August, citing faster-than-expected implementation of the US-Iran deal terms. The bank projects approximately 70 percent of prewar Hormuz throughput will resume by the end of July, according to Energy Connects. Under Goldman's base case, the bank cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80 per barrel, a $10 reduction from its prior target, as the earlier recovery timeline implies more supply returning sooner. Goldman simultaneously maintains a tail scenario: if Hormuz supply disruptions persist into 2027, the bank projects Brent could exceed $130 per barrel by year-end 2026.

Full Hormuz Recovery Forecast at Two to Three Months Under Deal Terms

Shipping analysts estimate Hormuz transit could approach 50 percent of prewar levels within 30 days, with full restoration of vessel movements taking two to three months under the deal's current terms. Oil Authority reported Friday that tanker traffic had fallen to zero at the strait as Iran-US peace talks hit an impasse before the Islamabad MOU was finalized on June 19. Thursday's 25-ship day represented the first meaningful traffic recovery since that stall, making Saturday's renewed freeze a setback to the base case supply normalization timeline. WTI crude fell roughly 8 percent on the week ending June 19, settling at $76.54 per barrel at the CME close as markets moved to price in supply normalization well ahead of physical flows confirming it.