Iran's IRGC Closes Strait of Hormuz to All Oil Tankers, India Protests Three Mariner Deaths, Brent at $93

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels on June 11, including oil tankers and commercial ships. The announcement followed a second consecutive day of US military strikes on Iranian targets, deepening a conflict that has disrupted global energy markets since late February 2026.

India Protests After Three Mariners Die in CENTCOM Strike

India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed three Indian nationals died when US Central Command struck the Palau-flagged oil products tanker M/T Settebello in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM said a US aircraft fired precision munitions into the vessel's engine room after the crew "repeatedly failed to comply with directions from American forces," per a statement reported by YourNews. India's minister of ports and shipping, Sarbananda Sonowal, announced the deaths on June 11, per CBS News.

The Indian government summoned a senior US diplomat to lodge a "strong protest." India's External Affairs Ministry called the "continuing incidents of attacks on shipping in the region deeply worrisome" and demanded an end to strikes on commercial vessels. The M/T Settebello was the eighth vessel disabled by CENTCOM since its blockade of Iranian ports began on April 13, 2026. A second vessel with Indian crew, the M/T Jalveer, was reported attacked near the Omani coast on the same day, per Republic World.

India is the world's third-largest crude oil consumer. Its refining sector depends heavily on Middle Eastern crude that historically transited the Strait of Hormuz. India had been rerouting supply through UAE bilateral channels to offset reduced Hormuz flows, but the diplomatic fallout from the mariner deaths adds a new pressure point to that arrangement.

Brent at $93.08, Well Below Goldman's Extended-Closure Scenario

Brent crude futures were trading at $93.08 per barrel in early Thursday trading on June 11, per OilPrice.com. WTI futures stood at $90.22 per barrel. Brent's March 2026 peak was $126 per barrel, per the Wikipedia timeline of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. The current price sits $33 below that level.

Goldman Sachs forecast in an April 9, 2026 note that an extended Hormuz closure would push Q3 2026 Brent to $120 per barrel and Q4 to $115. The strait has now been near-totally closed for more than three months, yet Brent trades at $93.08. The $27-per-barrel gap between Goldman's Q3 scenario and the actual price reflects the demand destruction the EIA quantified on June 9. The EIA expects global oil consumption to fall 1.1 million barrels per day versus 2025, driven by elevated prices and government conservation in Asia.

What the Strait Closure Means in Volume and Dollar Terms

The Strait of Hormuz carried 20 million barrels of oil per day before the conflict, representing 25% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of global LNG, per Wikipedia. Iran's military actions reduced throughput by more than 90% in the first months of the conflict. Middle Eastern producers cut output by more than 11 million barrels per day, per EIA data published June 9.

At 20 million barrels per day of pre-crisis throughput, one full week of complete closure represents 140 million barrels of export capacity offline. At $93.08 per barrel, that translates to $13 billion in stranded crude value per seven-day period. Oil Authority calculated this by multiplying pre-crisis daily Hormuz flow by seven days at the current Brent price. The figure shows why a geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in oil benchmarks even as demand destruction pulls prices below major bank stress scenarios.

Forecasters Split by $20 Per Barrel on H2 2026 Outlook

The EIA's June 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent will average $95 per barrel for full-year 2026 and fall to $79 in 2027 as supply routes partly restructure. Goldman Sachs, in its April 9 note, saw Q4 2026 Brent at $115 under extended closure conditions. The spread between EIA ($95) and Goldman's stress scenario ($115) represents a $20-per-barrel range on H2 2026, with demand destruction the variable that separates them.

Iran's Foreign Ministry stated on June 11 that US airstrikes had "effectively rendered the ceasefire meaningless," though Iran stopped short of formally abandoning negotiations, per Spectrum News. Iranian forces fired missiles at Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain overnight. Twenty missiles targeted a Jordanian location housing a US military base; all were intercepted with no casualties. An 11-year-old girl was injured in Bahrain from falling debris.

President Trump claimed more than 100 million barrels of oil have moved outside Iranian control through US operations, equivalent to five days of pre-crisis Hormuz daily throughput, per Spectrum News. Trump did not identify which vessels or routes were involved. Brent at $93.08 on June 11 remains elevated versus pre-conflict trading levels, suggesting the market continues to price a sustained disruption premium.