JPMorgan Sees $150 Brent if Hormuz Stays Shut

Wall Street's biggest oil desks are split on where crude prices land in the fourth quarter, with JPMorgan flagging a $150 per barrel Brent stress case if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have converged on a base-case Q4 Brent average near $90.

WTI crude was trading at approximately $101 per barrel on the CME June contract in afternoon dealings on May 14, 2026, with ICE Brent front-month around $105 per barrel, according to live quotes on OilPrice.com and Trading Economics. Both benchmarks are well above the $90 level the consensus desks are now pegging for Q4, implying analysts expect a meaningful retracement once Iran-related shipping pressure eases.

JPMorgan Sees Brent Toward $150 if Hormuz Stays Shut Past June

JPMorgan global head of economics Bruce Kasman told clients this week that a de facto blockade lasting another full month would be "consistent with Brent crude climbing toward $150 per barrel." That is the bank's stress scenario rather than its base case. JPMorgan's commodity analysts published a separate framework anchoring full-year 2026 Brent at $96, with quarterly averages of $103 in Q2, $104 in Q3, and $98 in Q4, contingent on a June 1 Strait of Hormuz reopening.

The bank's commodity team warned that OECD oil inventories could hit "operational stress levels" as early as early June if the strait stays closed and reach an "operational minimum" floor by September. That floor is the level below which physical buyers begin paying extreme premiums for prompt cargoes, regardless of the futures curve.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley Converge at $90 Brent for Q4

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent target to $90 per barrel and Q4 WTI to $83 per barrel in late April, citing large-scale Middle East supply disruptions and depleted commercial stocks. The bank's energy desk wrote that global supply has reached an unprecedented low relative to the past decade.

Morgan Stanley separately published a $90 per barrel forecast for the physical Dated Brent marker in Q4 2026, with the caveat that oil buffers could run out before Hormuz reopens if the political deadline slips into July. Both banks are notably below the JPMorgan stress case but in line with JPMorgan's own base-case Q4 print of $98.

IEA Demand Cut Compounds the Divergence

The International Energy Agency on May 14 cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 420 thousand barrels per day, citing the 1.4 million barrel per day Hormuz disruption already on the wires and an emerging price-induced demand response in Asia. The IEA cut, covered in Oil Authority's separate report, lands on the demand side of the equation, while the bank forecasts work the supply side. If both views are correct, the implied Q4 balance is roughly 1 million barrels per day looser than the wires currently price, which is what is pulling the consensus desk closer to $90 than to the JPMorgan stress case.

What the Spread Means in Dollar Terms

The gap between current Brent spot near $105 and the consensus $90 Q4 print equates to a roughly 14 percent downside from current levels. Applied to global seaborne crude trade of approximately 40 million barrels per day, a $15 per barrel decline would translate into roughly $600 million per day in lost producer revenue, equivalent to about $55 billion across the quarter. For Saudi Aramco, which recently reported $32 billion in Q1 2026 net profit at higher realized prices, a Q4 print at $90 would chop quarterly earnings by an estimated $4 to $5 billion at unchanged volumes.

What Investors Should Watch

Three near-term signals will determine whether the JPMorgan stress case or the Goldman base case prevails. First, any credible announcement of a Strait of Hormuz reopening date confirmed by both Tehran and Washington. Second, the next round of OECD inventory data due from the IEA in mid-June; if commercial stocks slip below 2.6 billion barrels, JPMorgan's operational stress trigger is hit. Third, OPEC's June ministerial meeting, where members are expected to discuss whether to release a portion of the roughly 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity that ADNOC and Aramco have publicly cited.