OPEC+ Approves Fourth Straight 188,000-Barrel July Hike; Goldman Sachs Cuts Q4 2026 Brent Forecast to $80

Seven OPEC+ nations approved a fourth consecutive production increase on June 7, raising collective crude output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in July 2026. Saudi Arabia and Russia each contributed 62,000 barrels per day to the hike, per the official OPEC communique. Iraq added 26,000 barrels per day to a quota of 4.352 million barrels per day. Kuwait received 16,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan 10,000, Algeria 6,000, and Oman 5,000.

UAE Exit Changes the Production Calculus

The United Arab Emirates formally exited OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, ending more than five decades of membership. Abu Dhabi's state producer, ADNOC, holds a production capacity of approximately 4.85 million barrels per day. Under its former OPEC+ quota, ADNOC was restricted to roughly 3.5 million barrels per day. Freed from that constraint after the May 1 withdrawal, ADNOC can now expand output by up to 1.35 million barrels per day toward its installed capacity. That incremental volume is not subject to any OPEC+ compensation obligation.

The Supply Math: 376,000 Barrels Per Day of New Group Quota Plus 1.35 Million From ADNOC

The two most recent OPEC+ monthly increases, each set at 188,000 barrels per day, have added 376,000 barrels per day to the group's collective quota since the May 3 meeting. The June 7 increase is the fourth such hike since the Hormuz closure began, per CNBC's reporting on the session. Add ADNOC's unconstrained upside of 1.35 million barrels per day, and new supply potential from these two sources alone totals roughly 1.73 million barrels per day. Oil Authority calculated this figure by cross-referencing OPEC's published quota tables against ADNOC's stated production capacity. That calculation does not appear in wire coverage of the June 7 decision.

Goldman Cuts Q4 2026 Brent to $80; Market Already Below That Level

Goldman Sachs revised its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel on June 16, cutting from the bank's prior target of $90. The bank also cut its Q4 2026 WTI forecast to $75 per barrel, down from $83. Goldman cited a faster-than-expected reopening of Gulf export routes, projecting exports back to pre-conflict levels by the end of July rather than the end of August. The EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook had forecast a full-year 2026 Brent average of $96 per barrel, reported by Oil Authority at the time of publication. By late morning on June 25, Brent was trading at $74.84 per barrel, up 1.49 percent on the day, per OilPrice.com (11-minute delay), already below Goldman's revised Q4 floor of $80.

Compliance: Kazakhstan and Iraq Still Owe the Group

Iraq and Kazakhstan are the two largest OPEC+ overproducers. Kazakhstan's compensation schedule required production cuts of up to 669,000 barrels per day by June 2026, per plans submitted to the OPEC Secretariat in January. Iraq's compensation obligation stood at approximately 100,000 barrels per day at midyear. Both nations have a documented history of missing targets. The June 7 communique extended the compensation deadline to December 31, 2026, widening the window for overproducers to make up past excess output.

What Comes Next

Monthly monitoring meetings are scheduled beginning July 5, 2026, overseen by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. OPEC+ participants retain the right to increase, pause, or reverse the phase-out of their additional voluntary production adjustments based on market conditions. Saudi Aramco, Russia's Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, and Iraq's state producer SOMO carry the largest share of the quota increase. None of the seven participating nations have publicly signaled intent to pause the production ramp.