Permian Claims 45% of US Rigs as Baker Hughes Count Rises to 562, Canada Surges 24

Baker Hughes released its weekly North American rig count on Friday, showing the US total climbed four rigs to 562 for the week ending May 29. Canada added 24 rigs to reach 162, a 17.4% week-on-week increase reflecting post-spring-break-up seasonal recovery. The US oil rig count rose four to 429, while all US net gains came from a single basin: the Permian.

Permian Basin Now Holds 45% of All US Rigs

The Permian added five rigs this week to reach 255 active units, while every other reported basin held flat. Those 255 Permian rigs represent 45.4% of the total US rig count and 59.4% of all US oil-directed rigs, based on Baker Hughes data published Friday. Non-Permian basins collectively shed one rig net, leaving drilling activity outside the Permian unchanged for the reporting period.

Basin-level data from the Baker Hughes release shows Haynesville at 55 rigs, Eagle Ford at 44, Williston at 28, Cana Woodford at 21, Marcellus at 24, and DJ-Niobrara at 8. None of those six basins added or lost a rig this week. The Permian's concentration reflects the basin's lower full-cycle breakeven costs and its established pipeline and gathering infrastructure, which give operators pricing confidence during volatile market conditions.

ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips Drive Permian Consolidation

ExxonMobil completed its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in May 2024 for $59.5 billion, making it the Permian's largest single operator by acreage. ConocoPhillips added the CrownRock position to its Permian portfolio in a deal valued at $22.5 billion, also completed in 2024. Both transactions moved large Permian acreage blocks from independent operators to international majors with lower cost-of-capital and multi-decade development timelines, structurally reinforcing the Permian's dominance in the weekly US rig count.

Canada's Spring Break-Up Recovery Adds 24 Rigs

Canada's 24-rig weekly increase, from 138 to 162, reflects the seasonal recovery pattern that follows spring break-up in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Spring break-up, the annual period of restricted road access caused by ground thaw, typically suppresses Canadian rig activity through March and April before recovering in May and June. The 17.4% single-week jump signals operators returning equipment to the field as road bans lift across play areas including Alberta's Pembina and the Deep Basin.

Alberta's drilling recovery feeds directly into Western Canadian Select production, the heavy sour benchmark that trades at a discount to WTI. WCS sat $16.25 per barrel below WTI as of mid-April 2026, according to brokerage CalRock data reported by BOE Report, implying a WCS price of $71.59 per barrel at Friday's WTI settlement of $87.84 if that differential holds. The WCS-WTI spread has remained volatile during the Hormuz crisis as Canadian production dynamics and US import demand respond to competing supply signals.

Drilling Persists as WTI Falls Toward Bank Forecasts

WTI crude settled at $87.84 per barrel on Friday's CME close, down 16.40% for May, as US-Iran ceasefire extension talks advance toward a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs set its Q4 2026 WTI forecast at $83 per barrel, meaning current prices remain $4.84 above Goldman's year-end target. JPMorgan's full-year 2026 WTI average stands at $89 per barrel, above Friday's settlement, indicating the market has already traded through JPMorgan's central case for the year.

The Baker Hughes US oil rig count of 429 compares to a long-run historical average of 498 rigs per year tracked by TradingEconomics from 1987 to 2026. At 429 rigs, US oil-directed activity runs 14% below that historical mean despite WTI prices elevated by the Hormuz crisis. TradingEconomics projects 430 US oil rigs by end of Q2 2026, implying minimal further near-term growth even as operators continue adding Permian units.