Rystad Energy Says Hormuz Tanker Traffic Has Essentially Stopped as US-Iran Airstrikes Hit 170 Combined Targets

Rystad Energy geopolitical analyst Jorge Leon said on Thursday that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "essentially stopped." US and Iranian military forces exchanged strikes for a second consecutive day, with the US Central Command hitting approximately 90 Iranian targets on July 9. Iran retaliated by striking US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and Jordan intercepted eight Iranian missiles during the exchange.

The traffic stoppage affects the strait's roughly 17 million barrels per day of combined oil and petroleum product flows. That volume represents approximately 17 percent of global daily oil consumption, based on EIA chokepoint analysis. Ship-tracking data showed Hormuz traffic confined to an Iran-approved northern corridor, while the US-supported Omani shipping lane remained largely inactive.

President Trump said additional military action remains possible, but indicated that negotiators would continue pursuing a diplomatic resolution. Iran warned that continued US involvement in Hormuz shipping operations could further extend the stoppage. The two sides exchanged over 170 combined strike sorties across the two-day escalation, per World Oil reporting.

Qatar Pauses the World's Largest LNG Facility

QatarEnergy paused restoration efforts at its North Field LNG complex after one of its LNG carriers was attacked in the strait. The North Field complex produces approximately 77 million tonnes per year of LNG. That output represents roughly 19 percent of global liquefaction capacity, based on International Gas Union estimates of approximately 400 million tonnes per year of global LNG supply.

QatarEnergy LNG, the operating entity that consolidated the former Qatargas and RasGas businesses, runs multiple production trains with international equity partners. Shell holds a 27.5 percent stake in LNG Train 4 through its Qatargas 4 agreement. TotalEnergies participates through Qatargas 2 and Qatargas 3. ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil also hold equity in separate JV train structures, meaning the production pause simultaneously affects the upstream LNG revenues of four of the world's largest international oil companies.

Pakistan moved to secure emergency LNG alternatives following supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf. US Gulf Coast LNG export terminals began fielding increased spot cargo inquiries from Asian buyers rerouting their supply away from Hormuz-dependent Persian Gulf sources, per OilPrice.com reporting.

WTI and Brent Pull Back From Session Highs

WTI crude was trading at $71.57 per barrel as of late morning on the CME, down $1.95 or 2.65 percent on the day, per OilPrice.com intraday data. Brent crude traded at $75.75 per barrel on ICE, down $2.27 or 2.91 percent. Both benchmarks climbed more than five percent in the prior session, with Brent approaching $78 per barrel before retreating as diplomatic channels remained open.

Goldman Sachs issued a market warning on Thursday identifying emerging supply threats to the global oil market arising from the conflict zone. The IEA noted separately that Middle East oil exports have continued rising despite the military escalation, but cautioned that risks to those flows remain elevated. Prices gave back a portion of the prior session's gains, though the underlying supply risk premium has not fully unwound.

WCS Narrows Against WTI as Heavy Sour Supply Tightens

Western Canadian Select traded at $61.17 per barrel per the most recent available data from OilPrice.com, which carries approximately an 11-hour delay for WCS pricing. WCS rose $3.08 or 5.30 percent in its latest available session as global crude prices surged on Hormuz fears. The implied WCS-to-WTI differential based on available data stands near $10.40 per barrel, calculated as WTI at $71.57 minus WCS at $61.17.

This compares to a typical WCS-WTI discount range of $12 to $15 per barrel in normal market conditions. A narrower differential improves netbacks for Alberta oil sands producers including Suncor Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, and Cenovus Energy. The Trans Mountain Pipeline, which reached commercial operation in 2024, gives Alberta crude an alternative tidewater outlet independent of Persian Gulf transit routes.

Hormuz disruptions remove competing Persian Gulf heavy and medium-sour crudes from the international market, tightening global sour crude supply. WCS competes directly with Arabian heavy grades on Asian export markets, so reduced Persian Gulf heavy crude supply tends to pull WCS prices higher even when light sweet benchmarks like WTI retreat.