Aramco Pipeline Maxed, Saudi Output Pinned at 8 Mbpd

Saudi Aramco's East-West (Petroline) crude pipeline is now running at its expanded 7 million barrels per day (mbpd) ceiling, capping the volume of Saudi crude that can clear the Red Sea while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, multiple energy market sources reported on May 11. The bottleneck has held Saudi production near 8 mbpd through May, well below the kingdom's roughly 12.2 mbpd sustainable capacity.

WTI crude was trading at $96.60 per barrel and Brent at $104.25 per barrel as of late morning Sunday on the CME and ICE, respectively, with both benchmarks holding within a roughly $5 range of where they settled before Aramco's May 11 Q1 disclosure.

The 5 Mbpd of Stranded Capacity

Oil Authority synthesis: subtracting the 7 mbpd East-West pipeline ceiling from Aramco's 12.2 mbpd nameplate capacity leaves roughly 5 mbpd of Saudi production capability that is currently inaccessible to international buyers, with the remainder absorbed by domestic refining at Yanbu, the SUMED pipeline link into the Mediterranean, and inventory builds at the King Fahd Industrial Port complex. That stranded 5 mbpd is roughly five times the production volume OPEC+ added to its June quota allocations at its May 3 meeting, when seven core members signed off on a 188,000 barrels per day increase, according to the OPEC Secretariat statement carried by Argus Media.

The actual addressable export gap is narrower than the raw arithmetic because Yanbu's two crude loading terminals have a tested capacity of about 4 mbpd despite the pipeline's 7 mbpd inland delivery, according to terminal operator data published by the King Fahd Industrial Port authority. The 3 mbpd headroom is consumed by feed into the Yanbu refining complex (roughly 1 mbpd) and southbound product flows.

Aramco's Q1: Profit Up Despite the Choke Point

Aramco reported Q1 2026 net income of $32.5 billion on May 11, a 25% jump year on year, attributing the gain to higher realized prices on the cargoes that did clear the Red Sea route. "Aramco's first-quarter performance reflects strong resilience and operational flexibility in a complex geopolitical environment," CEO Amin H. Nasser said in the earnings release, describing the East-West Pipeline as "helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock and providing relief to customers."

Nasser warned separately that the oil market "won't normalize until 2027 if Hormuz disruption persists," according to a CNBC interview published May 11. That forward guidance contrasts with the May edition of the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, which models a return of roughly half a million barrels per day of OPEC spare capacity by Q4 2026 on the assumption of a Hormuz partial reopening. The IEA Oil Market Report for May 2026 places Gulf production roughly 14.4 mbpd below pre-war levels, a figure that aligns with the stranded-capacity math above when aggregated across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Qatar.

Sister Country Constraints: ADNOC's Tighter Squeeze

The Saudi situation is comparatively favorable. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has only one onshore bypass, the 380-kilometre Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah, and the bulk of UAE production originates from offshore fields with no alternative export pathway. That has forced ADNOC to absorb a production decline of roughly 1.5 to 1.7 mbpd from a 3.4 mbpd pre-crisis base, a more than 45% cut versus Saudi Arabia's roughly 33% pullback. Oil Authority covered the ADNOC capacity context in its recent piece on the UAE's $55 billion investment push and OPEC exit.

What Bias Traders Should Set

Forecaster disagreement on the duration of the choke is the variable that matters most for the curve. Goldman Sachs analysts have repeatedly argued in client notes through May that any phased Hormuz reopening would unleash 6 to 8 mbpd of Saudi and Emirati spare capacity within weeks, pressuring Brent toward the mid-$80s. Morgan Stanley has taken the opposite view, modeling a higher-for-longer Brent floor of $95 to $100 through 2026 on the basis that Aramco and ADNOC would defend price through OPEC+ quota tightening even after physical flows resume. The May 21 settlement of $18.92 per MMBtu on the JKM benchmark, up 53% year on year, indicates Asian buyers are already pricing in a protracted disruption regardless of which view prevails on crude.