Saudi Crude Exports Sink to 4.97 MMb/d on Hormuz

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports collapsed to 4.974 million barrels per day in March, a record low in JODI tracking that dates to 2002 and a 31.6% drop from the 7.276 million barrels per day shipped in February. The Joint Organisations Data Initiative published the figures on Tuesday, formalizing what shippers and refiners had already surmised from tanker tracking in the weeks following the March 4 escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi crude production also fell to 6.967 million barrels per day in March from February's 10.882 million, JODI said, the lowest output figure on record for the kingdom. Brent front-month was trading near $110 per barrel in early Tuesday trading on ICE, holding most of the war-premium gains accumulated since late February. Saudi Aramco shares traded steady on the Tadawul as investors had largely priced in the March disruption.

East-West Pipeline Carrying the Load

With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a trickle, Aramco has run its East-West (Petroline) pipeline at full nameplate capacity since mid-March, rerouting eastern-field crude across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu. The pipeline's nameplate is 7.0 million barrels per day; on the company's May 6 Q1 2026 earnings call, executives confirmed the line had been at maximum operational capacity for most of the quarter and the company was studying further debottlenecking options.

Even at maximum throughput, Petroline alone can replace only a fraction of the 11 to 12 million barrels per day that historically transit Hormuz, of which Saudi Arabia accounts for roughly 6 to 7 million. Three supertankers carrying around 6 million barrels of Middle East crude successfully exited the strait overnight, the first such convoy in more than a week, but the volumes remain far below pre-March norms. India's state refiners, holding the largest single share of long-term Saudi term contracts in Asia, are reportedly preparing to send empty tankers directly into Hormuz to lift Gulf cargoes once any safe corridor is established.

Q1 Earnings Held Up on Price Lift

Despite the March volume collapse, Aramco's Q1 2026 adjusted net income climbed 26% year over year to $33.6 billion, beating consensus near $31.2 billion. The company's average realized price for the quarter rose roughly 25% quarter on quarter as Brent traded comfortably above $80 per barrel through January and February before the late-month surge. The Q1 base dividend was set at $21.9 billion, a 3.5% year-on-year increase that maintains the company's progressive payout track.

The export-price tradeoff explains how the world's largest producer can post record-low volumes alongside a 26% earnings increase: at a realized Brent in the high $80s for the quarter, every barrel that did reach a refinery delivered roughly $25 more in revenue than 12 months earlier. Aramco also formally launched Saudi Arabia's first quantum computer on May 19 as part of its broader digital and downstream diversification, the company said in a separate announcement.

OPEC Plus Crude Demand Holds at 42.7 MMb/d

OPEC's May Monthly Oil Market Report trimmed 2026 Declaration of Cooperation crude demand by 200,000 barrels per day to 42.7 million, leaving 2027 unchanged at 43.6 million. The cartel held 2026 global oil demand growth steady at 1.38 million barrels per day and upgraded the 2027 outlook by 200,000 bpd to 1.54 million. April crude output by DoC countries fell 1.74 million barrels per day month on month to 33.19 million, the report said, citing secondary sources.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both lifted their Q3 Brent price decks following the March disruption, with Goldman's latest forecast cited in the IEA's May Oil Market Report at $98 per barrel for the third quarter and a wider $90 to $115 range through year-end. The IEA itself warned earlier this week that OECD commercial crude cover had slipped toward a matter of weeks rather than months as Hormuz volumes stayed offline.