Trans Mountain Targets Full 890,000 BPD Capacity in June as WCS Finds 268,000 BPD of Asian Demand

Trans Mountain Corporation moved 737,000 barrels per day through its expanded pipeline system in the first quarter of 2026, operating at 83% of 890,000 bpd total installed capacity. Of that throughput, 419,000 bpd flowed to the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby for seaborne export. CEO Mark Maki said utilization climbed above 90% during Q2 and the company expects to reach full capacity by the end of June 2026.

Asian Buyers Absorbing 268,000 BPD of Canadian Crude

Of the 66 vessels loaded at Westridge in Q1 2026, 64% were destined for Asia-Pacific markets. Applying that share to the 419,000 bpd terminal throughput yields approximately 268,160 barrels per day now reaching Asian refineries via the Pacific gateway. Trans Mountain has loaded 528 total vessels since the expanded system opened in May 2024, with the Asia-Pacific share climbing from 32% in 2024 to 64% by Q1 2026, according to the company's Q1 2026 results.

South Korea, India, Japan, and Singapore each increased nominations for Western Canadian Select as Gulf heavy crude access through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted beginning in late February 2026. Three-quarters of Vancouver's approximately 375,000 b/d of heavy crude exports went to Asia-Pacific by late 2025, according to Argus Media. The Hormuz closure has since reinforced that directional shift, as Asian refineries seek heavy sour crude to replace disrupted Gulf supply.

WCS Discount Narrows But Remains Above AER Forecast

Western Canadian Select for June delivery traded at $16.30 per barrel below West Texas Intermediate as of early May 2026, according to brokerage CalRock. That spread narrowed from $17.00 per barrel in mid-April as Asian demand for WCS strengthened following the Hormuz disruption. WTI's July 2026 front-month contract traded at $88.59 per barrel on Tuesday, down $2.71 on the session, according to OilPrice.com. Based on the most recent available differential of $16.30 per barrel, WCS implied a price near $72 per barrel.

The Alberta Energy Regulator's 2026 base-case forecast called for a WCS-WTI differential of $12 per barrel this year. At approximately $16 per barrel, the realized spread runs $4 per barrel wider than the AER forecast. Two factors account for the gap: TMX ran at only 83% utilization in Q1 due to elevated tanker freight rates at Westridge, and several shippers completed planned maintenance that temporarily reduced nominations. Maki characterized both constraints as temporary rather than structural.

Trans Mountain as Canada's Crown-Owned Export Valve

Trans Mountain Corporation is a federal Crown corporation, wholly owned by the Government of Canada through Canada Development Investment Corporation. The pipeline is the only tidewater export outlet for Alberta crude producers, giving the system a structural role in pricing WCS against international benchmarks. Key shippers include Suncor Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus Energy, and Imperial Oil, the Canadian subsidiary of ExxonMobil.

Trans Mountain reported Q1 2026 revenue of $729 million and adjusted EBITDA of $552 million, down from $568 million a year earlier. Payments to the federal owner totaled $448 million in the quarter, including $148 million in interest and $300 million in dividends. The EBITDA decline reflected lower utilization and elevated freight costs, Maki said, not a reduction in shipper demand for capacity.

SCO and WCS: Two Alberta Benchmarks Diverge

Alberta's oil sands produce two distinct crude streams with different pricing outcomes. Synthetic Crude Oil, upgraded at facilities including Syncrude and Suncor's Base Plant, commands prices near WTI and has captured margins near $76 per barrel in recent weeks, as reported by Oil Authority. Raw WCS bitumen blend trades at a persistent discount because it requires heavy-oil-capable refinery configurations. As TMX approaches full capacity and reaches more Asian buyers with heavy-oil processing capability, analysts at Argus Media expect the WCS-WTI differential to narrow further toward the AER's $12 per barrel target.