European Gas Hits Three-Year High as Qatar Ras Laffan Drops to 4 LNG Cargoes Weekly on Hormuz Crisis

European natural gas prices climbed to their highest level since January 2023 as Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal loaded just four liquefied natural gas cargoes last week, down from six the week before. Dutch TTF futures traded at 59.27 euros per megawatt-hour on July 30, per ICE data via TradingEconomics, down 2.14% on the day after a single Qatari LNG tanker successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz. The daily pullback reflects relief at the individual transit but not a resolution to the supply constraint driving TTF up 37.79% over the past month.

Ras Laffan: From Six to Four Cargoes Per Week

Ras Laffan Industrial City hosts the world's largest LNG production complex, shipping roughly 77 million tonnes per year at full capacity. Kpler, the commodity analytics firm, tracked weekly loadings from the terminal falling to four cargoes from six in mid-July, per its July 24 supply revision report. Kpler revised its global LNG export forecast down by 21 million tonnes across the July 2026 through March 2027 period, reflecting its base case of a prolonged Hormuz disruption. Asian JKM spot prices reached $22 per MMBtu on July 22 and eased to $21.33 per MMBtu on July 28, per S&P Global Commodity Insights data via TradingEconomics.

The TTF-JKM spread compressed from its typical $2 to $4 per MMBtu range to roughly $1 per MMBtu at the crisis peak, per Kpler settlement data from July 22. That compression signals European and Asian buyers competing for the same cargoes. Before the Hormuz disruption, the wider spread reflected Europe's greater access to piped Norwegian and Algerian gas.

Equity Exposure: TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips

QatarEnergy operates Ras Laffan as a state entity, but Western majors hold equity stakes in the North Field East expansion trains. TotalEnergies holds approximately 25% in NFE production trains, giving it direct equity LNG entitlement to roughly one quarter of NFE output. ExxonMobil holds approximately 25% in a separate NFE train under the same joint venture framework. ConocoPhillips and Eni also hold positions in Qatari LNG joint ventures under long-dated agreements.

Each company's quarterly LNG volumes depend in part on Ras Laffan throughput. A sustained Hormuz disruption does not eliminate those entitlements but defers delivery, building unlifted positions that generate no cash until cargoes move. The Cyprus Cronos gas project sanctioned by Eni and TotalEnergies illustrates the supply diversification response gaining pace among companies with Qatari equity exposure.

The Henry Hub-TTF Spread at $18 Per MMBtu

Henry Hub natural gas traded at $2.70 per MMBtu on July 30, per CME futures data via TradingEconomics. TTF reached $20.91 per MMBtu on July 22 at its recent peak, per Kpler settlement data. The spread of roughly $18.21 per MMBtu sits well above the $5 to $6 per MMBtu threshold that makes US liquefaction commercially viable.

US LNG export terminals collectively operate at roughly 12 billion cubic feet per day of nameplate capacity. At an $18 per MMBtu spread, each day at maximum US export throughput represents approximately $216 million in gross revenue opportunity for US exporters. Delivered margins are lower: shipping, liquefaction tolls, and regasification fees typically run $3 to $5 per MMBtu combined. At current spreads, US LNG operators are clearing at least $12 per MMBtu of contribution margin on spot-priced European cargoes.

Forecasters Diverge on Duration

Goldman Sachs estimated that European gas prices could rise 130% from pre-crisis levels in a prolonged Hormuz disruption scenario, per Investing.com reporting from July 2026. Kpler's July 24 base case does not project that level but expects supply deficits to persist through the first quarter of 2027. The divergence between Goldman's upside scenario and Kpler's base case reflects genuine uncertainty about the timeline for restoring full Hormuz transit.

The 2.14% TTF decline on July 30 demonstrates how sensitive gas markets are to individual tanker transits. One cargo moving through Hormuz pushed TTF down by more than one euro per megawatt-hour intraday. Kpler's 21-million-tonne nine-month supply revision implies the market requires sustained weekly transit normalization, not isolated sailings, to materially lower TTF from its current elevated level.