EIA: US Crude Stocks Drop 6.1 Million Barrels to 24-Day Cover as Refineries Hit 96 Percent Capacity; WCS Near $14 Discount

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ending June 19, 2026, to 412.1 million barrels, per the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report released June 24. The draw exceeded market expectations of a 4.5 million-barrel decline by 36 percent. Stocks now stand 7 percent below the five-year seasonal average, the lowest level since January 2025. Refineries processed 17.1 million barrels per day during the same week, running at 96.1 percent of operable capacity.

24.1 Days of Crude Supply Cover: Below the Five-Year Norm

At 412.1 million barrels of commercial crude stocks and 17.1 million barrels per day of refinery throughput, the U.S. held 24.1 days of crude supply cover at mid-June. Oil Authority derived the five-year seasonal baseline from the EIA's own 7 percent below-average disclosure: that implies a mid-June five-year average of 443 million barrels, or 25.9 days of cover. Current stocks represent 1.8 fewer days of crude supply than the historical mid-June norm. The 6.1 million-barrel draw also exceeded expectations by 1.6 million barrels, a 36 percent miss that points to tighter underlying market conditions than consensus models assumed.

Distillate Demand Rises 3.2 Percent as Gasoline Slips

Total U.S. petroleum products supplied averaged 20.5 million barrels per day over the most recent four-week period, up 2.1 percent year over year, per the EIA. Motor gasoline demand averaged 8.8 million barrels per day on the same basis, down 3.0 percent from the prior-year period. Distillate fuel demand, which includes diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil, averaged 3.6 million barrels per day, up 3.2 percent year over year. The divergence suggests industrial freight and aviation recovery is outpacing consumer motor fuel demand, consistent with supply-chain activity picking up after the Hormuz disruptions.

WCS Holds Near $14 Discount as US Refineries Pull Canadian Heavy Crude

Western Canadian Select was quoted at $57.99 per barrel as of the prior evening on OilPrice.com (11-hour data delay), while WTI traded at $71.56 per barrel on the CME as of late morning on June 25 (11-minute delay). The implied WCS-WTI spread was $13.57 per barrel. The Alberta Energy Regulator's 2026 base case forecast places the WCS-WTI differential at $12.00 per barrel; its tariff scenario projects $14.00 per barrel. Wednesday's implied spread sits within that AER forecast band, per ST98 pricing data. Canadian heavy oil processes efficiently at complex U.S. Gulf Coast refineries oriented toward middle distillates, making the rise in distillate demand a structurally supportive factor for WCS pricing.

Imperial Oil Limited, the Canadian subsidiary of ExxonMobil, and Suncor Energy are among the primary producers of WCS-grade bitumen-blended crude from Alberta's Athabasca oil sands. Crude oil imports into the U.S. averaged 5.6 million barrels per day in the most recent EIA week, though the four-week average remained 4 percent below the year-ago level. Near-peak refinery utilization of 96.1 percent sustains demand across all crude grades, including heavy sour grades that underpin WCS pricing. The combination of below-average inventories and high refinery runs provides a structural floor for Canadian crude pricing, even as WTI faces downward pressure from the Hormuz reopening.