US Crude Output Hits Record 13.934 Million Bpd in April as Permian Basin Powers Surge Past EIA Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its Petroleum Supply Monthly report on June 30, 2026, confirming that US crude oil production averaged 13.934 million barrels per day in April. That monthly average sets a new US production record by daily rate, surpassing March's 13.718 million barrels per day by 216,000 barrels per day. April's output also beat the EIA's own June Short-Term Energy Outlook average projection of 13.7 million barrels per day for full-year 2026 by 234,000 barrels per day, or 1.7 percent.

Permian Basin and Bakken Lead the State-Level Gains

Texas produced 174.74 million barrels in April, equating to 5.82 million barrels per day, its highest monthly rate since November 2025. New Mexico set a state production record at 70.99 million barrels for the month, averaging 2.37 million barrels per day. North Dakota delivered 33.92 million barrels, or 1.13 million barrels per day, also its strongest monthly average since November 2025. The Permian Basin straddles the Texas-New Mexico border and accounts for the bulk of both state gains.

Hormuz Crisis Drilling Now Flows at Full Rate

Producers accelerated well drilling and completions when the Strait of Hormuz closure pushed WTI crude toward $120 per barrel earlier in 2026. WTI crude settled at $70.14 per barrel on June 30 per the CME, down 0.86 percent on the day. That close represents a $49.86 per barrel decline from the crisis-era peak, a drop of 41.5 percent. Wells drilled and completed at $120 prices continue producing at full rates regardless of current spot values, because the completion capital has already been spent.

ExxonMobil's Pioneer Acreage at the Center of the Permian Surge

ExxonMobil holds the largest single position in the Permian Basin following its 2024 acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources. Through its Pioneer and XTO subsidiaries, ExxonMobil operates across both the Midland and Delaware sub-basins, which together drove Texas and New Mexico to their record production figures. Pioneer's Midland Basin acreage contributed directly to Texas reaching 5.82 million barrels per day in April. Delaware Basin wells in New Mexico's Lea and Eddy counties delivered the record 2.37 million barrel-per-day state figure.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Diverge on Price Outlook

Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast to $75 per barrel on June 30, reducing the projection by $15 from its mid-June estimate. The bank cited three drivers: the return of Middle Eastern supply, elevated US export volumes, and soft Chinese crude purchases. Goldman Sachs projected Q4 2026 Brent at $80 per barrel, down from its prior $90 per barrel target. At a $5 per barrel gap between the two banks, analysts remain divided on how quickly US production growth will weigh on global prices.

Chinese crude imports fell to 5.8 million barrels per day in June 2026, down from 6.8 million barrels per day in May. A stored buffer of more than 1.2 billion barrels gave China's top importers room to avoid purchasing at crisis-era prices. Analysts cited $70 per barrel WTI as a potential trigger for renewed Chinese buying. WTI's June 30 settlement of $70.14 per barrel sits just at that threshold.

WCS Discount Adds Pressure for Alberta Oil Sands Operators

Western Canadian Select heavy crude trades at a structural discount to WTI, reflecting pipeline constraints and the cost of processing heavy bitumen-blend oil. That discount, and its effect on Alberta provincial revenue, is covered in Oil Authority's analysis from June 29 at the WTI settlement article. With WTI at $70.14 per barrel, any persistent WCS differential compounds the price pressure facing Alberta producers. The Alberta Energy Regulator's daily rig activity figures will indicate whether operators are adjusting well programs in response to lower realized prices.