US LNG Exports Reached 18.5 Billion Cubic Feet Per Day in March 2026, Topping EIA Full-Year Forecast of 17.4 Bcf Per Day

United States LNG exports averaged 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in April 2026, already exceeding the EIA's full-year 2026 forecast of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day, according to US Energy Information Administration export data released June 30. The EIA published that forecast in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on July 7, 2026, projecting growth from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. March 2026 reached the highest single-month export rate on record at 18.5 billion cubic feet per day. Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global Commodity Insights, described the growth as "exceeding all expectations," per Rigzone on July 20, 2026.

The first four months of 2026 averaged 17.9 billion cubic feet per day, an 18.5% increase over the full-year 2025 average of 15.1 billion cubic feet per day. January reached 17.4 billion cubic feet per day, February 17.6 billion cubic feet per day, March 18.5 billion cubic feet per day, and April 17.9 billion cubic feet per day. US baseload LNG export capacity was 11.44 billion cubic feet per day at the end of 2023, with 9.69 billion cubic feet per day of new capacity then under construction. Projects from that construction pipeline entered service through 2025 and into 2026, driving the volume increase.

Henry Hub Price Advantage Underpins US LNG Cost Position

Henry Hub natural gas was trading at $2.85 per million British thermal units on July 20, 2026, per TradingEconomics. The EIA's July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projected Henry Hub would average $3.67 per MMBtu for full-year 2026. At $2.85 per MMBtu, the actual feedstock cost is 22% below that EIA forecast, extending the US cost advantage over competing LNG exporters including Qatar, Australia, and Norway. Lower feedstock prices reduce variable costs at US liquefaction facilities and support higher margins on spot cargo sales.

EIA data shows US LNG exports commanded an average of $8.03 per thousand cubic feet at the point of export in April 2026. That compares to Henry Hub at $2.85 per MMBtu, a spread of approximately $5.18 per MMBtu equivalent, which covers liquefaction fees and market premium above the contracted rate. Applied to April's 537,936 million cubic feet of total export volume at the $8.03 per thousand cubic feet average price, US LNG export revenue in April 2026 totaled approximately $4.3 billion. In February 2026, the export price spiked to $11.33 per thousand cubic feet during the Strait of Hormuz disruption, lifting that month's revenue further.

Demand Shift: China Moves from Qatar to US and Canadian LNG

China's LNG imports from Qatar fell 97.9% in the second quarter of 2026 as buyers sought supply routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 19 Oil Authority report. US Gulf Coast LNG terminals route cargoes through the Atlantic and around the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing Hormuz entirely. This geographic advantage has positioned US LNG as a preferred alternative for Asian buyers seeking Hormuz-free supply. European buyers face parallel demand pressure: EU natural gas storage stood at 49% capacity as of mid-July, per Oil Authority coverage from July 19.

TTF European natural gas was trading at $19 per MMBtu as of mid-July, creating a large arbitrage window between US feedstock costs and European delivered prices. That spread supports high utilization rates at US terminals and incentivizes operators to secure additional feedgas. The February 2026 export price spike to $11.33 per thousand cubic feet demonstrates how acutely the Hormuz disruption tightened global LNG supply.

Outlook: Full-Year 2026 Average Likely to Exceed EIA Projection

The EIA's July 7, 2026, Short-Term Energy Outlook set the full-year 2026 US LNG export forecast at 17.4 billion cubic feet per day. Four months of actual data show a pace of 17.9 billion cubic feet per day, 2.9% above that level. If the second half of 2026 sustains the first-half rate, the annual average would land near 17.9 billion cubic feet per day. The EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook, expected in early August 2026, is likely to revise the full-year export estimate upward.