WTI Settles $104.12 as Oil Rigs Rise to 462, Baker Hughes Count Holds at 603

WTI crude settled at $104.12 per barrel on Friday's CME close, up $2.12 or 2.08% on the day, according to Reuters reporting carried by the Korea Times. Brent's expiring December contract settled at $117.64 per barrel, up $2.76. The more active January Brent contract settled at $113.43.

Both benchmarks posted their highest settlements since late April. Brent gained 13.6% in October and WTI gained 15.2%. Traders priced in the risk of wider Iran escalation after the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, plus a limpet-mine attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Baker Hughes Rig Count: Oil Rigs Up Two to 462

Baker Hughes reported that the total U.S. rig count held at 603 in the week to October 30, unchanged for a third straight week. The count sits 57 rigs, or 10%, above a year earlier. Oil-directed rigs rose by two to 462, the highest since early October.

Gas-directed rigs fell by two to 130, the lowest since early September. Miscellaneous rigs held at 11. Wyoming added two rigs to reach 18, its highest level since June 2025.

What the Numbers Imply: Our Calculation

Oil Authority divided Baker Hughes' category counts by the 603 total. Oil rigs make up 76.6% of the national fleet, and gas rigs make up 21.6%. A year ago the total stood at 546, so the fleet has grown by about one rig for every ten that were running.

Compare the price move with the response. WTI rose 15.2% in October, yet the weekly oil rig change was two rigs, or 0.4% from the prior week's 460. Operators are adding rigs at a pace far slower than the price rally.

The EIA projects U.S. crude output rising from a record 13.7 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.9 million in 2026, as cited by Reuters. Natural gas output is projected to rise from 107.6 to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day. At this pace of additions, any 2026 output gain depends more on drilling efficiency than on fleet growth.

Curve Math: The $4.21 December-January Brent Gap

The December Brent contract expired Friday at $117.64, while January settled at $113.43. That gap of $4.21 per barrel equals 3.7% of the January price. It shows how tight prompt barrels are relative to supply a month out.

Measured against WTI's $104.12, the expiring Brent contract carried a $13.52 premium. January Brent carries a premium of $9.31. Our October 21 analysis tracked the EIA spot gap at $7.33 per barrel on October 20, so the futures-based premium has widened since then, although spot and futures measures differ.

That same article noted that the EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook assumes Brent averages $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter. January Brent settled $8.43 above that path. The next EIA outlook arrives November 10, and a revision is the test to watch.

Equities and Shale Operators

The S&P 500 energy index hit a record high Friday morning, according to Reuters. Diamondback Energy rose between 2.2% and 2.7% in early trading. ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum and EQT gained between 1% and 1.9%.

ExxonMobil rose 1.4% and Chevron rose 1.9%, after both beat third-quarter profit estimates on strong refining margins. Marathon Petroleum, Valero and Phillips 66 gained between 2.2% and 2.7%. Baker Hughes rose about 2% and Halliburton rose 1.4%.

What to Watch Next

Markets reopen Monday ahead of the November 3 midterms. Qatari mediators have returned to Tehran, and Iran had not yet answered a letter from Vice President JD Vance, according to Tasnim as reported by Reuters. A deal would pressure the risk premium, while a collapse in talks would extend the rally.

The rig count gives the physical side of that story. If WTI holds above $100 per barrel, the fleet should keep growing from its current 603 level. Next Friday's Baker Hughes release will show whether operators finally respond to the October rally.