WTI Crude Settles at $69.23 as Hormuz Shipping Rebound Drives 22 Percent Monthly Price Collapse

WTI crude oil settled at $69.23 per barrel on Friday's CME close, down 3.74 percent on the day. Brent crude settled at $71.99 per barrel on ICE, falling 4.34 percent from Thursday. Both benchmarks registered their lowest close since February 27, 2026. The combined selloff marks the sharpest three-week price collapse in the North American crude market this year.

Strait of Hormuz Supply Returns to Market

Progress toward a US-Iran peace agreement accelerated shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz since mid-June, restoring Persian Gulf crude exports toward pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia raised output by 131,000 barrels per day from April to May 2026, reaching 7.01 million barrels per day, per OPEC production data. The United Arab Emirates added 90,000 barrels per day over the same period, lifting output to 2.11 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined added 221,000 barrels per day of incremental OPEC supply in one month.

Iran's crude production fell from 2.875 million barrels per day in April to 2.33 million barrels per day in May, per OPEC data, as the Hormuz dispute disrupted output. Economists project Iran will recover toward 2.45 million barrels per day by the end of the second quarter, with longer-run forecasts pointing to 3.15 million barrels per day by 2027. If that trajectory materializes, Iran alone could add 545,000 barrels per day back to global supply from May 2026 levels. Combined with Saudi and UAE gains already recorded, potential incremental OPEC supply totals approximately 766,000 barrels per day above April 2026 baselines.

Baker Hughes Rig Count Climbs Against the Trend

Baker Hughes reported 440 US oil rigs active for the week ending June 26, up seven from 433 the prior week, per the weekly rotary rig count. Total US rotary rigs climbed to 573, up ten week over week. The rig count increase runs counter to the direction of crude prices, which fell more than 27 percent from their June 5 level. Producers appear to be executing capital programs committed when WTI was trading above $90 per barrel.

Revenue Mathematics at $69 Crude

WTI traded at $96.87 per barrel for the week of June 5, per EIA Cushing weekly spot price data. By June 26, it settled at $69.23 per barrel. That $27.64 per barrel decline, applied to Canada's roughly 5.04 million barrels per day of crude production per February 2026 data, represents approximately $139 million per day less in gross wellhead revenue at WTI-equivalent reference pricing. Annualized at the current rate, the WTI shift since June 5 implies more than $50 billion per year of foregone gross revenue for the Canadian sector versus three-week-prior pricing.

Western Canadian Select typically trades $10 to $15 per barrel below WTI, placing WCS in the $54 to $59 per barrel range at current differentials. That level presses on the economics of oil sands mining operations. In-situ SAGD projects generally break even at lower WCS prices than open-pit mines. Sustained pricing at this level would test capital deployment plans at Suncor Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, and Imperial Oil, the Canadian subsidiary of ExxonMobil.

Natural Gas Holds Above $3

Henry Hub natural gas settled at $3.28 per MMBtu on Friday, down 0.49 percent on the day, per EIA spot price data. Natural gas is up 5.95 percent over the past month, providing a partial offset for producers with diversified commodity exposure. RBOB gasoline fell 2.32 percent to $2.96 per gallon on Friday. Heating oil declined 2.73 percent to $3.21 per gallon.