WTI Crude Settles at $84.88 per Barrel on Iran Deal Momentum as Baker Hughes Counts 433 Active Oil Rigs

WTI crude oil settled at $84.88 per barrel on Friday's CME close, down $2.83 or 3.23% on the session. Brent crude settled at $87.33 per barrel on the ICE, losing $3.05 or 3.37%. Both benchmarks recorded their steepest single-session decline in weeks, as accelerating US-Iran peace talks raised the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening for full tanker transit.

Iran Peace Talks Drive the Selloff

A senior Trump administration official told reporters Friday that Washington sees an 80% probability that a US-Iran deal will be signed within days. The proposed agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, dismantle Iran's nuclear program, and remove the country's enriched uranium stockpiles. President Trump said Thursday the US had "basically settled" the war with Iran, sending crude prices sharply lower at Friday's open. Tehran pushed back Friday, with Iranian state media releasing a draft deal text that US officials said did not reflect the agreed language. Oil markets held most of the session's losses despite the conflicting signals.

The Supply Math: OPEC Quota Hikes Cover Just 6.3% of Lost Output

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to tanker traffic since late February 2026, throttling exports from Gulf-based OPEC+ producers. Actual OPEC+ production fell from 42.77 million barrels per day in February to 33.19 million barrels per day by April, a loss of 9.58 million barrels per day. Over the same period, OPEC+ ministers approved four consecutive monthly quota increases totaling nearly 600,000 barrels per day, with the most recent 188,000-barrel-per-day hike for July ratified at the June 7 meeting. That cumulative approved volume equals just 6.3% of actual lost output. Physical supply relief from any Hormuz reopening will take weeks, as tanker scheduling, port inspections, and customer contract restart all add lag time after transit resumes.

Goldman Sachs Holds Q4 Brent at $90, Cuts 2027 to $80

Goldman Sachs maintained its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast at $90 per barrel while lowering its 2027 average Brent estimate to $80 per barrel, citing stronger long-term supply growth expectations. The bank separately projects that Gulf producer oil exports will normalize by late August, implying a gradual rather than immediate supply restoration. Goldman had previously warned that if Hormuz remained mostly shut for another month, Brent would average above $100 per barrel throughout 2026. Friday's ICE Brent settlement of $87.33 sits below Goldman's Q4 target, a sign the market is pricing an orderly deal scenario rather than extended closure.

Baker Hughes Counts 562 US Rigs; Permian at 256

Baker Hughes reported a total US rig count of 562 for the week ending June 12, down one from the prior week. Oil-directed rigs held at 433, up two week-over-week, while gas rigs fell three to 121. The Permian Basin counted 256 active rigs, down one on the week. Eagle Ford showed 44 rigs, Haynesville 55, and Marcellus 24. At Friday's WTI settlement of $84.88, Permian operators with all-in break-evens of $45 to $55 per barrel retained a margin of $30 to $40 per barrel.

Canadian Heavy Oil: Trans Mountain Hits Apportionment

Western Canadian Select for July delivery at Hardisty settled $11.90 per barrel below WTI as of June 10, per BOE Report, narrowing from $16.30 per barrel in May. Trans Mountain ran at apportionment for June 2026, the first time the expanded pipeline has been fully subscribed since the expansion completed. Strong demand for pipeline access reflects improved export volumes for Albertan heavy crude even as WTI softened this week. Alberta oil sands producers with integrated sustaining costs of $35 to $45 per barrel remain profitable at current WCS levels.