WTI Crude Settles at $90.48 After EIA Reports Seventh Consecutive Weekly Inventory Draw

WTI crude settled at $90.48 per barrel on Wednesday's CME close, up $2.28 or 2.59% on the day, according to OilPrice.com. Brent crude settled at $93.44 per barrel on Wednesday's ICE close, gaining $1.99 or 2.18%. Both benchmarks reversed Tuesday's selloff of more than 3%, which was driven by signals of a temporary ceasefire in the Iran-linked Hormuz conflict. Recovering crude prices came alongside a bullish inventory surprise from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Seventh Consecutive Draw Surprises Markets

The EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on June 10, 2026, covering the week ending June 5. Commercial crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million barrels, now 5% below the five-year seasonal average. Analysts had expected a draw of 4 million barrels; the actual result exceeded that figure by 80%. Refineries ran at 95.3% of operable capacity, processing 17.0 million barrels per day, up 80,000 barrels per day from the prior week.

Distillate fuel stocks fell 0.2 million barrels and now sit 13% below the five-year average. Motor gasoline stocks added 0.2 million barrels but remain 6% below seasonal norms. US crude imports declined to 5.9 million barrels per day, down 500,000 barrels per day week over week and 5.8% below the year-ago four-week average. The seven-week drawdown streak has pulled combined commercial and SPR stocks 90 million barrels below their recent peak. At 17.0 million barrels per day of refinery throughput, that cumulative erosion equals 5.3 days of US consumption.

Hormuz Closure Tightens US Import Supply

The EIA's June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook cited Hormuz-related production shut-ins averaging 11.3 million barrels per day in May, the largest monthly supply disruption the report has recorded. US crude imports have tracked the fallout directly: the 500,000-barrel-per-day weekly decline confirms Gulf-origin crudes are not reaching US shores at prior volumes. OPEC oil production in May reached its lowest level in more than 20 years, according to a Reuters survey published this week.

Tuesday's selloff reflected a brief shift in risk perception after Iran paused strikes on Gulf nations following US retaliatory action, according to TradingKey on June 10. Traders sold crude on the de-escalation signal, pushing WTI below $88 at Tuesday's close. Wednesday's inventory data then provided a physical-supply anchor for prices. Iran warned it could resume strikes if Israeli operations in Lebanon continue, limiting the durability of the de-escalation premium unwind.

EIA and IEA Hold Divergent Outlooks for the Rest of 2026

The EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel through July before declining to $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming partial Hormuz normalization. In contrast, the IEA's May Oil Market Report projects a supply deficit of 1.78 million barrels per day for the full year, with Brent expected to average $106 per barrel. That $17-per-barrel gap between the two agencies' Q4 Brent outlooks reflects divergent assumptions about the pace of Hormuz traffic restoration.

Both agencies project weaker global demand through 2026 but differ on the magnitude. The EIA forecasts a 1.1-million-barrel-per-day demand decline versus 2025 levels, while the IEA estimates a 420,000-barrel-per-day contraction driven by price-related demand destruction. To buffer the deficit, the IEA has committed its 32 member nations to a coordinated 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release. Both agencies project demand recovering in 2027, with the EIA forecasting 2.5-million-barrel-per-day growth to 105.3 million barrels per day globally.