US Oil Rigs Rise to 454 as Henry Hub Prices Keep Gas Rigs at 124 in Baker Hughes August 7 Count

Baker Hughes released its weekly North American rig count on Friday, August 7, showing US oil rigs rose by three to 454. Natural gas rigs declined by the same number to 124, keeping total US drilling activity unchanged at 588 rigs. The equal and opposite shifts point to a deliberate reallocation of capital from gas to oil plays. Price signals from the CME and ICE Friday closings make the arithmetic clear.

Price Signals Drive the Oil-Gas Rotation

WTI crude oil settled at $77.08 per barrel on Friday's CME close, down 0.27% from Thursday but $1.08 above Goldman Sachs' Q4 2026 WTI baseline target of $76. Brent crude settled at $82.27 per barrel on the ICE close, also down 0.27%, landing within Goldman Sachs' updated $80 to $90 Brent range issued August 4. Henry Hub natural gas settled at $2.671 per MMBtu on Friday, according to TradingEconomics, near its lowest level since April despite a 1.17% daily gain. WTI at $77 supports continued oil completions while Henry Hub at $2.67 does not justify adding gas rigs at current rig economics.

Revenue Math Behind the Rotation

At $77.08 per barrel, an oil rig contributing 1,220 barrels per day of incremental capacity earns roughly $94,000 in daily gross revenue. Oil Authority derived the 1,220-barrels-per-rig figure in its July 31 analysis of the same 588-rig count. A gas rig producing 8 MMcf per day at $2.671 per MMBtu earns approximately $21,400 in daily gross revenue per rig. By that calculation, oil delivers 4.4 times more gross daily revenue per active rig than gas at Friday's settlement prices, before royalties and operating costs.

EIA Record Output Forecast and Goldman Price Targets

The EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its 2026 US crude oil production forecast to 13.78 million barrels per day, up from 13.72 million bpd in the June edition. April 2026 reached 13.934 million bpd, the highest single month in US history. Goldman Sachs analysts hold a Q4 2026 WTI baseline of $76 and Brent at $80, updated August 4 to a wider $80 to $90 Brent range for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. Today's Brent at $82.27 and WTI at $77.08 sit within Goldman's range and above the Q4 base case. Markets appear to price in a Hormuz supply risk premium rather than incremental output from record US production.

Year-Over-Year Context and Capital Discipline

The 588-rig total marks a 49-rig gain from 539 in the same week of 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase. Oil Authority's July 31 report on that same 588-rig count identified capital discipline as the defining theme, noting that operators such as ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy held within conservative annual spending plans despite crude prices above $80. Friday's flat total with an oil-to-gas rotation confirms that pattern continues: companies are reallocating within approved budgets rather than expanding them. Baker Hughes data placed the Permian Basin at 241 active rigs as of the July 24 sub-basin release, the most recent basin-level count available on Friday.