UKMTO Reports Three Tankers Struck in the Strait of Hormuz as ICE Brent December Settles at $102.31

UK Maritime Trade Operations reported on Sept. 30 that three tankers had been struck in the Strait of Hormuz, with a fourth tanker reported hit on Oct. 1. ICE Brent December futures settled at $102.31 per barrel on Oct. 1, compared with $100.22 a week earlier.

The incidents add risk to a crude export route already under strain. Buyers in Asia and Europe depend on those barrels as diesel supply tightens worldwide.

UKMTO Logs Hits on a Crude Tanker and Two Other Tankers on Sept. 30

In its Sept. 30 entries, UKMTO reported a crude oil tanker struck on the port side, a tanker transiting inbound, and a third tanker struck by an unknown projectile. All three were described as time-late reports.

On Oct. 1, UKMTO received a third-party report of a tanker struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the strait, resulting in a fire. UKMTO did not attribute the strikes.

Russia's Restrictions on Diesel Exports by Producers Continue

Russia's government extended restrictions on diesel, marine fuel and gasoil exports by direct producers through Sept. 30 in a resolution dated Aug. 28. Government records show the restriction was then in place through Oct. 31.

A general ban on fuel exports from Russia remains in effect until Jan. 31, 2027, the government said. Restrictions by a major supplier deepen the shortfall in world diesel trade.

EIA's Retail Diesel Average Stands at $6.382 Per Gallon

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's retail diesel average was $6.382 per gallon on Sept. 28. U.S. distillate inventories were 105.2 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 25.

U.S. commercial crude inventories were 427.3 million barrels that week, and domestic production was 13.96 million barrels per day. Crude exports were 3.57 million barrels per day, and refiners ran at 92.5% of capacity.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 283.8 million barrels.

IEA Forecast 2026 Oil Demand Will Fall 2.5 Million Bpd

The International Energy Agency said in its September Oil Market Report that world oil demand would fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, with losses concentrated in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks. It projected a recovery of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027.

The agency attributed the deeper decline to the continuing impasse in negotiations between the United States and Iran. It said global oil production fell by 1.6 million barrels per day in August to 100.1 million.

ICE Brent December Stands $4.87 Above Its Sept. 25 Settlement

The December contract settled at $97.44 on Sept. 25 and $96.16 on Sept. 29 before rising to $102.31 on Oct. 1. January Brent settled at $98.43, leaving December $3.88 above January, Oil Authority calculations show.

The EIA's Europe Brent spot price was $114.82 on Oct. 1, and its WTI spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma, was $99.77. Physical prices were well above futures, a sign of tight prompt supply, as our East-West pipeline report described earlier.

The EIA's Henry Hub spot price was $3.00 per million British thermal units. ICE Endex TTF November futures settled at 73.94 euros per megawatt hour, and EU gas storage stood at 71.97% according to the AGSI database.

Baker Hughes Counted 599 U.S. Rigs and 208 in Canada

Baker Hughes counted 599 U.S. rigs in the week ended Sept. 25, with oil rigs at 455 and the Permian at 270. Canada's count was 208, of which 154 were in Alberta.

Canadian Crude Reaches the U.S. Without Crossing Hormuz

U.S. crude imports from Canada were 3.42 million barrels per day in the week ended Sept. 25, according to the EIA. Those volumes move largely by pipeline, outside the waters covered in UKMTO's log.

Canadian producers selling at Western Canada Select benchmarks are affected by global prices mostly through WTI.

OPEC+ Countries Meet on Oct. 4 to Review November Output

OPEC+ countries are scheduled to meet on Oct. 4 to review November production levels. Baker Hughes publishes its next rig count on Oct. 2, and the EIA's next weekly petroleum report follows on Oct. 7.