Baker Hughes: US Oil Rigs Hit 17-Month High at 462 as Permian Climbs to 274, WCS Discount Widens to $25.55

US oil and gas companies added five rigs in the week ending October 9, 2026, pushing the total count to 603, the highest level since May 2024. Baker Hughes data show 56 additional rigs, or 10% more, than at the same point a year ago. This marks the fourth rig addition in the past five weeks, underscoring a sustained recovery from 2025's multi-year lows.

Oil Rigs Lead the Advance

Oil rigs rose six to 462, their highest reading since May 2025. Gas rigs fell one to 132, the lowest since mid-September. Miscellaneous rigs held at nine. Oil's gain reversed the prior week's pattern: the October 2 count fell to 598, with gas drilling retreating from a three-year high as oil rigs held relatively steady.

Permian Leads Basin Gains

The Permian Basin in West Texas and eastern New Mexico added four rigs to reach 274, the highest count since June 2025. Haynesville gained one rig to 57. The Eagle Ford held at 49, while the Williston, Marcellus, and DJ-Niobrara basins were each unchanged.

Canada also expanded, with the rig count rising six to 222 for the week ending October 9. Alberta's fall drilling season routinely accelerates after summer road-ban restrictions lift. The six-rig gain suggests producers are committing capital ahead of the winter drilling window.

WTI Settles at $91.85, Brent at $104.72

WTI for November delivery settled at $91.85 per barrel on Friday's CME close, up 0.4% on the day, per Rigzone. ICE Brent for December delivery settled at $104.72 per barrel, also gaining 0.4%. Hurricane Isaias shut in roughly 72% of Gulf of Mexico crude production and put nearly 500,000 barrels per day of refining capacity at risk, lending price support. President Trump's statement that the US would not strike Iran before the midterm elections moderated some of the geopolitical risk premium late in the session.

WCS Discount Surges to Widest Since 2023

For Canadian producers, Friday's settlement was less favorable. Western Canadian Select for November delivery at Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $25.55 per barrel below WTI, up from $25.20 on Thursday, per brokerage CalRock. The implied WCS outright price was $66.30 per barrel, calculated from Friday's $91.85 WTI settlement less the CalRock-reported discount. The gap was more than $10 wider than at the same point last month and wider than at any point since 2023, according to Boereport.

Rory Johnston of Commodity Context attributes the widening to two factors: quality-related weakness in the US Gulf Coast fuel oil market and a spike in global marine shipping costs following Strait of Hormuz attacks. JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva noted that ship-to-ship transfers in the Strait now take up to 10 days, requiring more vessels to move the same oil volume. Reduced vessel availability has pushed tanker rates to records, raising the cost of shipping Alberta heavy crude to Gulf Coast refiners.

Alberta Netback Erosion: The Math

The Canadian Energy Regulator reported a 2024 annual average WCS-WTI differential of $14.73 per barrel. Friday's $25.55 spread sits $10.82 per barrel wider than that benchmark. Alberta's in situ and oil sands mines produce more than 3 million barrels per day of heavy crude that prices against WCS. At that volume, each additional $1-per-barrel widening in the WCS-WTI spread reduces sector gross revenues by more than $3 million per day, or $1.1 billion annualized.

At more than 3 million barrels per day of Alberta heavy crude output pricing against WCS, the $10.82-per-barrel widening above the 2024 average represents over $32 million per day in additional netback erosion for the sector. The WCS-WTI spread has not been this wide since 2023, per Boereport. In 2023, differential spikes were driven by pipeline takeaway constraints before the Trans Mountain Expansion came online in May 2024; today's widening reflects a different cause: Hormuz-driven shipping cost inflation.

What the Rig Count Signal Means

The US rig count fell 7% in 2025, 5% in 2024, and 20% in 2023, as producers prioritized returns over growth at lower prices. The October 9 recovery to 603 rigs, led by oil-directed drilling, signals operators are responding to the sustained price environment. The EIA projects US crude output will rise from a record 13.7 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.9 million bpd in 2026. Gas output is forecast to climb from 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 112.2 Bcf/d in 2026, driven by LNG export demand and power sector growth.

Gas rigs have now declined two consecutive weeks, sitting at 132, despite rising LNG export volumes. That divergence reflects capital discipline at current Henry Hub prices, which settled at $3.13 per MMBtu as of Thursday's CME close. Baker Hughes publishes its rig count each Friday; the next release is scheduled for October 16, 2026.