Brent Falls to $72 as 35 Million Barrels Exit Hormuz, Running $33 Below EIA June Forecast

ICE Brent crude futures fell to $72.29 per barrel on Thursday June 26, down 3.94% from Wednesday's close of $75.26, per ICE Futures Europe. CME WTI front-month futures dropped to $69.40 per barrel, down 3.50% from Wednesday's $71.92 close. Both benchmarks are on course for their steepest weekly loss in months, with WTI down roughly 10% over the past five trading sessions.

The selloff accelerated as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz picked up speed after a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 in Geneva. At least 20 tankers carrying an estimated 35 million barrels had exited the Persian Gulf as of June 24, according to vessel-tracking firm Kpler. Most of those cargoes are bound for Asia and are expected to reach buyers by early August.

Markets Now $33 Below EIA June Forecast

The EIA's June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, published June 9, forecast Brent averaging approximately $105 per barrel in June and July 2026. The EIA assumed the Strait of Hormuz would "remain effectively closed in the near term," with gradual reopening beginning in Q3 2026. At $72.29 per barrel on Thursday, Brent is trading $32.71 below that near-term forecast.

The IEA's June Oil Market Report placed Brent at roughly $81 per barrel at time of writing in mid-June, describing it as already "$37 per barrel below an early April peak." Thursday's $72.29 puts Brent roughly $46 below that April high. The EIA's full-year 2026 Brent average forecast stands at $95 per barrel, placing the market 24% below the agency's annual projection with six months remaining.

Oil Authority reported in April that the EIA's April 2026 STEO called for a $96 per barrel Brent average and a $115 Q2 peak, when Hormuz shut-ins were running at 9.1 million barrels per day. The June revision lowered the 2026 average to $95, but spot prices have moved well below both forecasts as tanker traffic recovers faster than agency models assumed. Both agencies published when supply closure assumptions were still fully in force; markets are now pricing a faster reopening.

The $297 Billion Supply Equation

The EIA estimated Middle East production shut-ins at 11.3 million barrels per day in May 2026, compared with pre-conflict output. At $72.29 per barrel Brent, that idle capacity represents roughly $297 billion in annualized crude export value. Each 1 million barrels per day restored to Hormuz traffic adds approximately $26 billion per year at current prices.

The IEA placed Hormuz transit at 12 million barrels per day in early June, up from a May low of 9.6 million barrels per day, but still well below the roughly 15 million barrels per day that flowed before the February 28 conflict began. Global commercial inventories fell 143 million barrels in May, a draw rate of 4.6 million barrels per day, leaving OECD government stocks 163 million barrels lower at their lowest level since December 1990. The EIA projects OECD inventories will fall further to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December 2026, representing roughly 50 days of demand cover.

Analysts Split on Whether the Market Has It Right

Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said the Brent decline represents "a discernible vote of confidence that the worst, at least as far as supply disruptions are concerned, is behind us." Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights countered that crude's slide is "entirely sentiment-driven" and that markets may be "pricing in the best-case scenario" without adequate allowance for setbacks. Both analysts were responding to Brent's drop of more than $17 per barrel in the four trading sessions following the June 17 agreement.

Events on June 25 gave weight to that caution. The United Nations agency coordinating vessel evacuations through the Strait of Hormuz paused operations after a ship was struck off the coast of Oman. Oil briefly reversed its losses before resuming the decline. The incident showed that the Hormuz corridor, while reopening, has not yet stabilized.

The EIA projects global inventory draws of 6.3 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and 7.6 million barrels per day in Q3. If those draws materialize as modeled, supply deficits would be inconsistent with $72 Brent. The gap between agency projections and market pricing reflects two competing views: agencies assume a slow Q3 Hormuz restart, while traders are pricing a faster one.

Iraq Presses OPEC for a Higher Quota

Iraq called on OPEC this week to raise its national production quota to 5 million barrels per day, according to World Oil and CNBC. Iraqi Oil Minister Basim Muhammad Khudhair cited revenue losses sustained during the conflict as justification. The Globe and Mail reported Iraq was considering all options, including withdrawal from OPEC, if the request went unmet.

Seven core OPEC+ members raised their combined production quotas by 600,000 barrels per day between April and June 2026, increases that can now reach export markets as Hormuz reopens. Iraq's push for a further quota increase to 5 million barrels per day adds a supply-side upside risk that markets have not yet fully priced. Together, rising Gulf exports and Iraq's pending claim suggest the current price level may be tested by additional supply before year's end.