Brent December Contract Expires at $117.64, $4.21 Above January, as WTI Gains 15.2% in October on Hormuz Mine Strike

ICE December Brent expired on Friday at $117.64 per barrel, up $2.76 or 2.4% on the day, after touching $118 intraday. The more actively traded January contract settled at $113.43 per barrel, up $2.63. NYMEX WTI settled at $104.12 per barrel on Friday's CME close, up $2.12 or 2.08%. Reuters, as carried by Nation Thailand, reported that both benchmarks reached their highest settlements since the end of April.

The $4.21 gap between expiring and next-month Brent

December Brent finished $4.21 above January, a premium of 3.7% over the January price. That shape, called backwardation, means buyers pay extra for barrels delivered sooner. It signals that physical tightness is concentrated in the nearest loading window.

The gap partly reflects expiry mechanics, because an expiring contract can swing on the last few lots traded. It also tracks the supply shock. UKMTO, the British maritime security service, reported a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz, which Reuters described as the first known successful limpet-mine attack there since the war began in February.

Front-month WTI settled $13.52 below the expired December Brent, and $9.31 below January Brent. Oil Authority computed both figures from the settlements above, so the two spreads compare different contract months and should not be read as one quote.

What a 15.2% monthly gain means in dollars

Brent gained 13.6% in October and WTI gained 15.2%, according to the Reuters report. Working backward from Friday's $104.12 settlement, a 15.2% rise implies WTI closed September at $90.38 per barrel, a gain of $13.74 in four weeks. That is Oil Authority's arithmetic, not a reported settlement.

For Canadian producers, the US dollar move matters twice. WTI-linked revenue rises in US dollars, and the discount on Western Canadian Select determines the net. Oil Authority's coverage of the US$31 WCS discount puts that discount at the widest since 2022, which limits how much of the rally reaches Alberta heavy barrels.

Weekend risks and the analyst range

Houthi forces claimed strikes on the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and an Abqaiq facility, while a Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a cruise missile. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran, and Iranian media said Tehran had received but not answered a letter from US Vice President JD Vance. Saxo Bank flagged the November 3 US midterms as a source of volatility over the next two weeks.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said traders "will remain focused on oil flows out of the Middle East and the likely escalation by US and allied forces." FinanceFeeds laid out reference levels measured from the $113.43 settlement: $107 on a calm weekend, $110 to $117 as a base case, and $120 on a confirmed hit to a main transit route. Those are scenario markers, not published forecasts from a bank.

Saxo Bank expects crude at $70 to $90 per barrel once the conflict ends, against $60 to $70 before the war, per the Nation Thailand report. That is a single-source view, so treat it as one house's estimate. The wide gap between that range and Friday's settlements shows how much of the price is war premium.

Where this fits in our recent coverage

Oil Authority's report on the OPEC+ December quota freeze noted that Gulf producers are pumping below quota because Hormuz is shut. A quota hold therefore adds no barrels, and the curve gap above shows where the market prices the shortage.

The IEA emergency stock release of 330 million barrels covers only 16 days of Hormuz flow. Brent stood at $113.43 in that analysis, the same January settlement recorded Friday. The backwardation suggests traders see stock draws as a short bridge, not a fix.