OPEC+ Freezes December Quotas at 31.01 Million bpd as Brent Settles $117.64 and Hormuz Stays Shut

The seven core OPEC+ producers left their December 2026 output targets unchanged on Sunday, November 1, holding September's required production for a third straight month. The joint target stays at 31.01 million barrels per day, according to CNBC and The National. The statement added no output adjustments and gave no timetable for increases.

Oil enters the new week at multi-month highs. Brent's expiring December contract settled at $117.64 per barrel on Friday on ICE, up $2.76 or 2.4%, after touching $118. The more active January contract settled at $113.43, up $2.63. WTI settled at $104.12 on the CME, up 2.08%, per Reuters reporting carried by CNBC. Markets reopen Sunday evening, so no new settlement exists yet.

The December quotas, country by country

The National published the December targets for each of the seven members. Saudi Arabia is at 10.478 million barrels per day, Russia at 9.949 million, Iraq at 4.431 million and Kuwait at 2.676 million. Kazakhstan holds 1.628 million, Algeria 1.007 million and Oman 841,000.

Those figures sum to 31.010 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia together account for 65.9% of the group's joint target. Saudi Arabia alone holds 33.8%, which makes the kingdom's export routes the swing factor for whether the quota matters at all.

Quotas that producers cannot reach

Most members are pumping below their targets because the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since US-Iran fighting began on February 28, per The National. IMF PortWatch data cited by the Straits Daily Brief recorded 2 transits on October 25, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. A quota freeze therefore changes little for Gulf barrels that cannot leave the water.

Our own arithmetic shows the scale of the gap. Saudi Arabia's 10.478 million barrels per day target, valued at January Brent's $113.43 per barrel, equals about $1.19 billion of crude per day. Every 1 million barrels per day that stays stranded removes about $113 million of daily export value at that price.

That compares with an earlier Oil Authority estimate of stranded Gulf crude flows worth $1.27 billion per day. Brent has risen since that analysis. Kpler data cited by Reuters in mid-October put Gulf flows at 8.5 million barrels per day, down from more than 20 million. At $113.43, that 11.5 million barrel per day gap carries a value of about $1.30 billion per day.

Why the 2027 baseline review matters more than December

The group must finish a capacity review in the fourth quarter to set 2027 baselines, according to Reuters sources cited by CNBC. Those baselines determine future quotas and how the remaining cuts unwind. About 2 million barrels per day of 2022 cuts covering most members stay in place through the end of 2026, after the group finished phasing out a 1.65 million barrel per day cut in September.

Members producing below target during the war face an awkward measurement problem. A capacity assessment taken while Hormuz is shut could understate what Saudi Aramco and its neighbors can deliver once shipping resumes. Producers with domestic export routes, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, may look stronger on paper than Gulf members.

Analyst and forecaster views diverge

Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial told Reuters that traders will stay focused on oil flows out of the Middle East and the likely escalation by US and allied forces. Saxo Bank expects crude to trade in a $70 to $90 per barrel range even after the conflict ends, compared with $60 to $70 before the war. Brent at $113.43 sits $23 above the top of that post-war range.

Trading Economics lists a Brent quarter-end forecast of $116.80, reflecting its model and analyst expectations. The gap between that figure and Saxo's post-war range captures the war premium the market is pricing. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 29, according to The National.

What to watch this week

Traders will watch Sunday evening's open for a reaction to the OPEC+ hold and to reports that a senior US military commander briefed President Trump on options for renewed strikes on Iran. Qatari mediators are pressing for a US-Iran deal, and Vice President JD Vance reportedly sent Tehran a letter to revive talks. Iran had not responded as of Friday, per Reuters.

For comparison, our Friday WTI settlement coverage showed the same $104.12 close that anchors this week's opening. Wednesday brings the EIA weekly petroleum status report, and Friday brings the Baker Hughes rig count.