Brent's $113.43 Settle Sits $8.43 Above EIA's Q4 Forecast as Saxo Sees $70 to $90 Even After the War

Brent crude for January delivery settled at $113.43 per barrel on Friday's ICE close, up $2.63 on the day, while WTI settled at $104.12 per barrel on the CME, up $2.12. Brent finished October up 13.6% and WTI up 15.2%, according to Reuters figures relayed by FinanceFeeds. Forecasters tell a calmer story than the futures screen. This piece measures the gap between the two.

How Far the Settle Sits Above the EIA Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its October Short-Term Energy Outlook on October 6. It projects Brent at $105 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, a $14 increase from the prior month's forecast. The agency puts the 2026 average at $96 and the 2027 average at $84.

Friday's $113.43 settle is $8.43, or 8.0%, above the EIA's fourth-quarter figure. Against the 2027 average of $84, the settle is 26% higher. Against the EIA's fourth-quarter 2027 path of $73.94, it is 35% higher.

Those percentages show how much of the current price reflects physical scarcity that the EIA expects to fade. The agency assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter. It then assumes most Gulf production returns to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027, according to the EIA outlook as summarized by Global Oil Shock.

The Supply Math Behind the Forecast

The EIA projects a 2026 global deficit of 1.34 million barrels per day. It then projects a 2027 surplus of 4.91 million barrels per day. That swing of 6.25 million barrels per day is the arithmetic that pulls its price path down from $94.90 in the first quarter of 2027 to $73.94 in the fourth.

The forecast depends on convoys through the Strait of Hormuz, bypass routes and more ship-to-ship transfers. The EIA also points to attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline as evidence that physical flows can stay volatile. Its upside risk is a constrained strait beyond the second quarter of 2027. Its downside risk is a quick reopening.

Where Saxo Bank Disagrees

Saxo Bank expects crude at $70 to $90 per barrel even after the conflict ends. That compares with $60 to $70 before the war began in February. Saxo therefore treats part of the war premium as permanent, while the EIA path ends 2027 at $73.94, inside the lower half of Saxo's post-war band.

The midpoint of Saxo's range is $80. Friday's Brent settle is 29% above that midpoint. The two forecasters agree on direction but differ on the floor, and neither sees the current price lasting.

Contract Roll and the Brent-WTI Spread

Two mechanics distort a simple comparison. The December Brent contract expired Friday at $117.64, which is $4.21 above the January contract that now serves as front month. That gap reflects the roll between contracts and not a market move.

Brent January and WTI settled $9.31 apart. Measured against the expiring December Brent, the gap was $13.52. Our earlier coverage of the OPEC+ December quota freeze quoted the $117.64 expiry price, and the figure no longer represents the front month.

What Changed Since the Last Stock-Release Story

When we covered the IEA emergency stock release of 330 million barrels, Brent held at the same $113.43 level. The new element is the EIA's October revision, which moved its fourth-quarter view up by $14 and narrowed the distance between forecast and futures. Saxo's post-war floor supplies the second reference point.

Calendar Risks for Monday's Open

Seven core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, meet online Sunday. Three Reuters sources said on October 27 that December targets would likely stay unchanged, and no outcome had been reported when this article was written. Since most Gulf members already pump below target, a hold adds no barrels.

FinanceFeeds laid out reference levels for the week: $106 if diplomacy opens and no new incidents occur, $110 to $117 if incidents continue without closing main routes, and $120 after a second confirmed mine strike. These are scenario markers from that publication and not forecasts. U.S. midterm elections follow on November 3, and the October jobs report arrives November 6.