Brent Settles at $79.45 as US, Iran and Oman Near 60-Day Hormuz Deal While EIA Confirms 2.5 Million Barrel Build

Brent crude oil for October delivery settled at $79.45 per barrel on Wednesday, August 5, according to Rigzone market data, while WTI settled at $75.22 per barrel for September delivery. That Brent settlement marks a 20.6% decline from the $100-per-barrel close recorded on July 23, when Red Sea tanker attacks triggered a 7% single-day surge. The U.S. Energy Information Administration confirmed Wednesday that U.S. commercial crude inventories rose 2.5 million barrels in the week ending July 31. Diplomatic optimism around a potential Hormuz shipping agreement weighed on prices for a third consecutive session.

Terms of the Emerging 60-Day Deal

Iran, Oman, and the United States are close to finalizing a 60-day interim arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls or fees, according to reporting by CNBC, Axios, and Al Jazeera on August 5. Under the proposed routing framework, vessels entering the Persian Gulf would use a northern lane through Iranian territorial waters, while outbound ships would take a southern lane through Omani territorial waters. A 30-day mine-clearing operation in the median lane is part of the package, with a permanent arrangement between Oman and Iran to follow. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday he believed a deal could come within 24 hours, a statement that erased more than 5% from Brent in that session.

President Trump said publicly that negotiations with Tehran were moving well and that more would be known within 48 hours. An August 5 analysis by CNN cautioned that the emerging arrangement differed from what Washington had originally sought, with unresolved questions about Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps support for the deal. Ryan McKay of TD Securities estimated maximum potential throughput could reach five million barrels per day if Iran permits full two-way commercial traffic. Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities said the deal had gotten closer to reality but questioned whether the IRGC would comply.

EIA Confirms 2.5 Million Barrel Crude Build

The EIA weekly petroleum status report for the period ending July 31, 2026 confirmed a 2.5 million barrel addition to U.S. commercial crude stocks. Total U.S. crude inventories stand at approximately 424.4 million barrels, about 4% below the five-year seasonal average. Refined product stockpiles posted significant declines during the same week, while refinery activity ticked lower. Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth Group said traders are reading the tea leaves in search of direction and expects oil to remain highly sensitive to each incoming headline.

Price Trajectory from Crisis Peak to Diplomatic Discount

Brent closed above $100 per barrel on July 23 for the first time since May 26, as Red Sea tanker attacks triggered a 7% single-day gain. The EIA's July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 7, projected Brent would average $74 per barrel in Q3 2026 and fall to $65 per barrel in 2027 as Hormuz flows normalize. Wednesday's $79.45 settlement sits $5.45 per barrel above that Q3 forecast, reflecting residual risk from unresolved military and naval tensions. Both benchmarks remain above the EIA's post-Hormuz-reopening baseline, suggesting markets have not fully priced in a deal.

Oil Authority reported in April 2026 that the EIA had raised its full-year 2026 Brent average forecast to $96 per barrel as Hormuz disruptions locked in 9.1 million barrels per day of shut-ins. The distance from that $96 forecast to Wednesday's $79.45 settlement reflects diplomatic progress made over two months. A June 18 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran attempted to end the conflict, but renewed Iranian attacks through late July reversed those gains. The 60-day interim framework now being negotiated includes dedicated routing lanes, a mine-clearing timeline, and a structured path toward a permanent arrangement.