Brent Hits $79.25 Before Retreating as Trump Voids Iran Ceasefire After Three Hormuz Tanker Attacks

Brent crude futures surged to $79.25 per barrel at 8:05 a.m. Eastern on Thursday on ICE Futures Europe. The price retreated to $75.75 per barrel, down $2.27 on the day, by late morning after the initial surge met with selling. WTI futures fell to $71.57 per barrel on CME Globex, down $1.95, according to OilPrice.com live pricing as of mid-morning Thursday.

Ceasefire Unravels After Three Tanker Attacks

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked two tankers on July 7: the Qatari-flagged LNG carrier Al Rekayat and the Saudi supertanker Wedyan in the Strait of Hormuz. Al Rekayat caught fire in its engine room; crew evacuated the vessel. A drone struck a third tanker off the Omani coast less than 24 hours later, bringing vessels attacked in the strait since March 2026 to at least 49, per a Wikipedia tally of the Hormuz crisis.

President Trump declared the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding ceasefire "over" on Wednesday evening after the tanker strikes. U.S. Central Command then launched approximately 90 airstrikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait, according to NBC News. The breakdown centers on a disputed clause requiring Iran to allow safe passage through the Strait, which Tehran claimed Washington violated by routing vessels through a southern Omani lane.

Oil surged more than 6% immediately after Trump's statement, before profit-taking pared gains into Thursday morning. Qatar separately accused Iran of responsibility for the Al Rekayat attack. Washington reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports that had been lifted under the Islamabad MOU, tightening export revenue pressure on Tehran.

Goldman and Wood Mackenzie Diverge on Price Path

Goldman Sachs set its Q3 2026 base-case Brent forecast at $82 per barrel before the latest escalation. If the Strait of Hormuz stays broadly closed for one additional month, Goldman warns Brent could average above $100 per barrel through the remainder of 2026. A further extension would push Brent to $120 per barrel in Q3 and $115 in Q4, according to Goldman's note as reported by OilPrice.com.

Wood Mackenzie holds a less extreme view. The Edinburgh-based consultancy projects Brent will average $92 per barrel in 2026, assuming Hormuz traffic normalizes by August 18. If the Strait reopens on that schedule, Wood Mackenzie forecasts a drop to $78 per barrel in 2027, with prices potentially easing to $70 in Q4 2027, per the firm's June 2026 analysis.

The key assumption separating the two forecasters is timing. Goldman's upside scenarios require only one more month of closure to push Brent through $100. Wood Mackenzie's $92 full-year average builds in an August normalization that maritime intelligence firm Windward describes as currently unlikely: "The strait has not reopened, it is in a supervised pause," Windward stated, in remarks cited by Goldman.

Transit Exposure and OPEC+ Context

Approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day transit the Strait of Hormuz, representing about 25% of global seaborne crude trade, per EIA transit data. An additional 20% of global LNG passes through the same waterway, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration figures for 2023-2025. At Thursday's Brent price of $75.75 per barrel, each day the Strait remains actively contested puts roughly $1.5 billion in daily seaborne oil value at risk. Under Goldman's $120 upside scenario, that figure rises to $2.4 billion per day.

OPEC+ agreed on July 6 to raise collective output by 188,000 barrels per day for August, the fifth consecutive monthly production increase from the group's seven core members. That supply addition has not translated into price relief. In an earlier Oil Authority analysis, WTI settled at $68.78 per barrel when Iraq's compliance gap was the market focus. WTI now trades at $71.57, a rise of $2.79 per barrel despite the August addition, as geopolitical risk premium overrides the supply-side signal. S&P Global Energy expects full Gulf production recovery no earlier than Q1 2027.