Canadian Natural Q1 Output Hits 1.64M BOE/d

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSX: CNQ) reported first-quarter 2026 product sales of $12.4 billion and net earnings of $1.35 billion, or $0.65 per basic share, on the back of record North American conventional output and oil sands operating costs that held steady at $23.73 per barrel. Adjusted earnings from operations came in at $2.45 billion, or $1.17 per share, roughly flat versus Q1 2025.

Total Q1 production averaged 1,643,160 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 4% year-over-year, the company said in its earnings release. Within that mix, oil sands mining and upgrading delivered 587,946 barrels per day of synthetic crude oil (SCO), while North American exploration and production assets posted a record 773,000 BOE/d.

$1.5 Billion Returned to Shareholders, Dividend Streak Hits 26 Years

Adjusted funds flow of $4.37 billion funded $1.5 billion in direct shareholder returns during the quarter, split between dividends and share buybacks. Canadian Natural declared an annualized dividend of $2.50 per share, extending its dividend growth streak to 26 consecutive years, the longest among Canadian senior producers.

The full year capital program remains on track as outlined in the company's March 2026 guidance. CNRL has been pushing through the geopolitical turbulence that has roiled global crude markets since the Strait of Hormuz disruption began earlier this spring, with operational reliability across the integrated upstream and downstream portfolio holding firm through the quarter.

WTI Near $102 and $23.73 SCO Cost Imply Strong Netback Despite WCS Pressure

WTI crude was trading at around $102 per barrel as of late morning Monday on the CME, after briefly touching $108 earlier in the session. Brent traded near $102 after a $111 spike earlier in the day. With Western Canadian Select trading roughly $16 to $17 below WTI in recent weeks, per CalRock differential data cited by BOE Report, the realized Canadian heavy price still leaves the company's $23.73 per barrel oil sands mining operating cost with roughly $60 per barrel of gross margin before transportation and royalties. That positions the producer well even as the WCS differential remains volatile during the ongoing Middle East supply shock.

Canadian Senior Producers Align on 2026 Output Lifts

CNRL is not alone among Canadian seniors pushing production higher this year. Cenovus Energy guided 2026 upstream production to between 945,000 and 985,000 BOE/d, a year-over-year increase of about 4% adjusted for the MEG Energy acquisition that closed last year. Suncor Energy guided 2026 total production to 840,000 to 870,000 barrels per day, with refinery utilization of 99% to 102%, the highest run rate in the company's history.

Combined, the three majors are guiding for roughly 3.4 million BOE/d of 2026 Canadian production, which would absorb the bulk of the incremental 80,000 b/d of national output growth that Argus Media projects for the year. The Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline continues to clear the way for Asia-Pacific exports: November 2025 loadings at the Westridge terminal hit a record 530,000 b/d, with around 80% bound for Asia, per Vortexa and Kpler data cited by Argus.

OPEC+ Quotas and Canadian Heavy Demand Pull in Opposite Directions

The supply-side backdrop has shifted sharply since the UAE exited OPEC earlier this month. OPEC+ agreed an output increase of 188,000 barrels per day at its May 3 meeting, the first since the UAE departure, according to CNBC's coverage of the cartel's communique. That incremental supply does little to offset the 10.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf production that was shut in during April, leaving Asian refiners increasingly reliant on Canadian heavy crude reaching the West Coast via TMX.

What's Next for Q2

Q2 numbers will land against tougher comparisons. Capex is expected to accelerate into spud and tie-in programs across the Montney and Duvernay, where Canadian Natural has been reactivating drilling pads following the integration of acreage acquired in the 2024 Chevron Canada divestiture. Investors will look to the Q2 release for further detail on turnaround schedules at Horizon and Albian, as well as commentary on hedging adjustments given the recent $17 per barrel WCS differential.