EIA Cuts Q3 Inventory Draw Forecast by 4.8 Million Bpd After Hormuz MOU, Revising 2026 Brent Down to $82

The Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook released July 7, 2026 cut the 2026 annual Brent crude forecast to $82 per barrel, down $13 from the June projection of $95. The July STEO also trimmed the 2027 Brent forecast to $65 per barrel, down $14 from June. The revisions follow the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 18, 2026, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz and dramatically altered the global supply outlook.

Hormuz MOU Cuts Q3 Inventory Draw From 7 Million to 2.2 Million Bpd

The most significant change in the July STEO is the revision to the Q3 2026 global oil inventory draw. The previous forecast projected a draw of 7 million barrels per day through Q3 as Hormuz disruptions kept Persian Gulf exports off the market. After the Hormuz MOU, the EIA revised that draw down to 2.2 million barrels per day. The 4.8 million barrel-per-day revision drove the $27 per barrel cut to the Q3 Brent forecast.

The Inventory Math Behind the $27 Per Barrel Q3 Price Cut

The 4.8 million barrel-per-day difference in Q3 inventory draw expectations translates to 441.6 million additional barrels of oil available to markets over Q3 compared to the June forecast. Q3 spans 92 days, and each day of reduced inventory draw means more supply available at the margin. That volume shift, equivalent to roughly 14 days of global crude oil consumption, is what the EIA used to justify the $27 per barrel reduction in its Q3 Brent forecast. Brent crude settled at $76.01 per barrel on Friday, July 10, already 8% below the revised $82 annual average, suggesting markets may be pricing in a faster-than-expected supply recovery.

EIA and Goldman Sachs Now Stand $48 Per Barrel Apart

The divergence between major forecasters is wide. Oil Authority reported this week that Goldman Sachs elevated its $130 Brent scenario from an upside case to its active base forecast after Iran closed Hormuz. The EIA base case of $82 and Goldman active forecast of $130 represent a $48 per barrel gap, the widest divergence between these two forecasters in recent memory. The gap reflects a binary underlying assumption: the EIA models Hormuz staying open, and Goldman models it staying closed or materially restricted. Both forecasters are working from different starting premises about the same geopolitical event.

Ceasefire Ended July 8, One Day After the STEO Released

US President Donald Trump declared the June 18 ceasefire over on July 8, 2026, one day after the EIA published its revised $82 Brent forecast. The declaration followed fresh military exchanges between US and Iranian forces. If Hormuz traffic is disrupted again, the 4.8 million barrel-per-day supply assumption underlying the STEO revision would be partially or fully reversed, pushing inventory draws back toward the June scenario and reintroducing upward price pressure. OPEC+ approved its fifth consecutive 188,000 barrel-per-day output hike for August, as Oil Authority reported this week, adding further complexity to any revised supply calculation.

WTI at $71.41 and the Brent-WTI Spread

WTI crude settled at $71.41 per barrel on Friday, July 10, down 0.93% on the session. Brent settled at $76.01 per barrel, a decline of 0.38%. The $4.60 Brent premium over WTI reflects Brent greater exposure to Hormuz routing risk. Both benchmarks are trading below the EIA revised $82 Brent annual average, consistent with the mid-year timing and the possibility that markets assign some probability to the ceasefire holding and further price pressure ahead.